Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 12/10, 21:00
Prediction: Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield
Team pages: Lanus · Velez Sarsfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.11Total
Lanus1.21
Velez Sarsfield0.9
1X2
Lanus
Draw
Velez Sarsfield
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Lanus
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Velez Sarsfield
4-6-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lanus
2–2–2
Velez Sarsfield
(6 last)
- Velez Sarsfield0-1Lanus
- Velez Sarsfield3-0Lanus
- Lanus2-0Velez Sarsfield
- Lanus0-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-0Lanus
- Lanus0-1Velez Sarsfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lanus 1523 · Velez Sarsfield 1533
| Lanus | Draw | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Market | 41% | 33% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lanus | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.1 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 44/56/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5 | 2.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanus 2–2–2 Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lanus |
| 31/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Lanus |
| 22/05/25 Argentina Cup | Lanus | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 22/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Lanus | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 20/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lanus |
| 05/07/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Lanus | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Lanus | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Newell's | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 17 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 17 |
| 9 | Estudiantes LP | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 14 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Riestra | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 11 |
| 13 | Platense | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 10 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 8 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lanus | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Newell's | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Estudiantes LP | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Riestra | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Defensa y Justicia | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Boca Juniors | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| CA Independiente | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lanus (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lanus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 15/09 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 17/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 12/08 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/08 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 21/09 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/08 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lanus win (42%). Probabilities: Lanus 42%, draw 33%, Velez Sarsfield 26%.
How many goals are expected in Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model expects 2.11 goals (Lanus 1.21 · Velez Sarsfield 0.9), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.