Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 03/10, 22:00
Prediction: Newell's vs Lanus
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.18Total
Newell's1.06
Lanus1.12
1X2
Newell's
Draw
Lanus
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Newell's
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Lanus
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newell's
4–2
Lanus
(6 last)
- Lanus5-0Newell's
- Newell's2-1Lanus
- Lanus0-2Newell's
- Newell's1-0Lanus
- Lanus1-0Newell's
- Newell's2-0Lanus
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newell's 1532 · Lanus 1517
| Newell's | Draw | Lanus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 32% | 36% |
| Market | 32% | 32% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Newell's: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newell's | Lanus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.4 | 3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newell's 4–0–2 Lanus
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Lanus | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Newell's |
| 05/10/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Lanus |
| 31/01/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Lanus | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Newell's |
| 27/08/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lanus |
| 21/05/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Lanus | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Newell's |
| 17/08/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Lanus |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | CA Independiente | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
| 7 | Lanus | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Newell's | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 11 |
| 11 | Estudiantes LP | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Platense | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newell's | Lanus |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes LP | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Riestra | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Defensa y Justicia | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Boca Juniors | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| CA Independiente | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lanus (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newell's
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 11/09 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 01/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/07 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Lanus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 15/09 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 17/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 12/08 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/08 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/07 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newell's vs Lanus?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lanus win (36%). Probabilities: Newell's 32%, draw 32%, Lanus 36%.
How many goals are expected in Newell's vs Lanus?
The model expects 2.18 goals (Newell's 1.06 · Lanus 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Newell's vs Lanus?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.