Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 03/10, 19:45
Prediction: Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
Team pages: Defensa y Justicia · San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Defensa y Justicia1.27
San Lorenzo0.96
1X2
Defensa y Justicia
Draw
San Lorenzo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Defensa y Justicia
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
San Lorenzo
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensa y Justicia
3–2–1
San Lorenzo
(6 last)
- San Lorenzo2-5Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia0-0San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-2Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia1-0San Lorenzo
- Defensa y Justicia0-1San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-0Defensa y Justicia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensa y Justicia 1545 · San Lorenzo 1460
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 31% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensa y Justicia (rating 1545 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Defensa y Justicia: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensa y Justicia | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.3 | 0.8 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensa y Justicia 3–2–1 San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 2-5 HT 0-2 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 22/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 07/04/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 24/11/23 Argentina Cup | Defensa y Justicia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 12/11/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 08/05/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | CA Independiente | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
| 7 | Lanus | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Newell's | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 11 |
| 11 | Estudiantes LP | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Platense | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensa y Justicia | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Central Cordoba | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Lanus | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Defensa y Justicia (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 18/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/07 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 14/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/07 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/07 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensa y Justicia win (42%). Probabilities: Defensa y Justicia 42%, draw 31%, San Lorenzo 27%.
How many goals are expected in Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Defensa y Justicia 1.27 · San Lorenzo 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.