Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 03/10, 02:30

Prediction: Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia LP

Team pages: Independiente Rivadavia · Gimnasia LP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Independiente Rivadavia1.78

Gimnasia LP1.06

1X2

53% 27% 21%

Independiente Rivadavia Draw Gimnasia LP

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Rivadavia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWLWW

Gimnasia LP 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Independiente Rivadavia 3–0 Gimnasia LP (3 last)

Gimnasia LP2-3Independiente Rivadavia
Independiente Rivadavia1-0Gimnasia LP
Gimnasia LP2-3Independiente Rivadavia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Rivadavia 1542 · Gimnasia LP 1513

	Independiente Rivadavia	Draw	Gimnasia LP
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	52%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Independiente Rivadavia: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Rivadavia	Gimnasia LP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	2.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.30

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.82
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.66 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +18’	1.75	3.30	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:33 +1333’	1.82	3.66	4.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Rivadavia 3–0–0 Gimnasia LP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	2-3 HT 2-2	Independiente Rivadavia
19/07/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Independiente Rivadavia	1-0 HT 1-0	Gimnasia LP
30/01/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	2-3 HT 0-2	Independiente Rivadavia

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	10	5	3	2	13	9	18
2	Rosario Central	10	5	3	2	11	8	18
3	Independiente Rivadavia	10	5	2	3	14	13	17
4	Gimnasia LP	10	5	2	3	15	15	17
5	Belgrano	10	4	4	2	11	7	16
6	Huracan	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
7	Sarmiento	10	5	1	4	17	16	16
8	River Plate	10	4	1	5	13	12	13
9	Atlético Tucumán	10	3	4	3	7	6	13
10	CA Tigre	10	3	3	4	9	9	12
11	Barracas Central	10	3	3	4	5	7	12
12	Banfield	10	2	3	5	11	16	9
13	CA Aldosivi	10	2	2	6	12	16	8
14	Racing Club	10	2	2	6	11	16	8
15	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	10	1	3	6	5	13	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Rivadavia	Gimnasia LP
Barracas Central	1-0 W	2-0 W
CA Aldosivi	4-3 W	2-1 W
River Plate	1-3 L	1-0 W
Racing Club	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gimnasia LP (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Rivadavia

DWLWLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
12/09	CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	3-1	4-3	2	5	W
07/09	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-3	0	7	L
31/08	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
22/08	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/08	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
08/08	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
03/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
31/07	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/07	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Gimnasia LP

LWWWLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
13/09	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
05/09	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
29/08	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
22/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
15/08	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-4	2	8	L
09/08	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/08	CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/07	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia LP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Rivadavia win (53%). Probabilities: Independiente Rivadavia 53%, draw 27%, Gimnasia LP 21%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia LP?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Independiente Rivadavia 1.78 · Gimnasia LP 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia LP?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.