Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 13/09, 17:00

Prediction: Riga FC II vs Leevon PPK

Team pages: Riga FC II · Leevon PPK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Riga FC II1.34

Leevon PPK1.86

1X2

27% 24% 49%

Riga FC II Draw Leevon PPK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Riga FC II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Leevon PPK 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Riga FC II 3–2 Leevon PPK (5 last)

Leevon PPK3-2Riga FC II
Leevon PPK0-3Riga FC II
Riga FC II1-2Leevon PPK
Leevon PPK1-4Riga FC II
Riga FC II2-1Leevon PPK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Riga FC II 1515 · Leevon PPK 1582

	Riga FC II	Draw	Leevon PPK
Our model	27%	25%	49%
Market	27%	23%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leevon PPK (rating 1515 vs 1582).
H2H favours Riga FC II: 3-0-2.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Riga FC II	Leevon PPK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.90

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:31 +2’	3.25	3.90	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC II 3–0–2 Leevon PPK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	3-2 HT 0-1	Riga FC II
27/09/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	0-3 HT 0-1	Riga FC II
18/05/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Riga FC II	1-2 HT 1-0	Leevon PPK
16/09/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	1-4 HT 0-2	Riga FC II
11/05/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Riga FC II	2-1 HT 1-1	Leevon PPK

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	20	16	3	1	58	19	51
2	Metta/LU	20	16	3	1	86	16	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	20	14	4	2	37	22	46
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	20	13	5	2	46	21	44
5	JDFS Alberts	20	11	4	5	41	28	37
6	Marupes SC	20	9	1	10	34	32	28
7	Riga FC II	20	7	4	9	29	37	25
8	SK Super Nova II	20	6	7	7	28	30	25
9	Skanstes SK	19	7	2	10	39	38	23
10	RFS II	19	4	3	12	28	52	15
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	20	3	4	13	27	57	13
12	JFK Ventspils	19	2	6	11	20	40	12
13	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	19	3	3	13	23	59	12
14	Rezeknes FA	20	1	3	16	16	61	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Riga FC II	Leevon PPK
Skanstes SK	3-2 W	2-1 W
JFK Ventspils	1-1 D	2-1 W
SK Super Nova II	2-1 W	3-2 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	2-0 W	4-1 W
RFS II	3-1 W	2-1 W
FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Riga FC II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
29/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
24/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-3	11	5	L
08/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
01/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
27/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
19/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
04/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/06	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
14/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W

Leevon PPK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
16/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	7	W
10/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	3-2	9	8	W
02/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
26/04	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-2	3-2	11	7	W
18/04	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
12/04	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
28/03	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
22/03	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
08/11	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-2	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Riga FC II vs Leevon PPK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leevon PPK win (49%). Probabilities: Riga FC II 27%, draw 24%, Leevon PPK 49%.

How many goals are expected in Riga FC II vs Leevon PPK?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Riga FC II 1.34 · Leevon PPK 1.86), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Riga FC II vs Leevon PPK?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.