Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: Valmiera FC vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Team pages: Valmiera FC · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Valmiera FC2.06

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners1.56

1X2

49% 23% 29%

Valmiera FC Draw FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Valmiera FC 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Valmiera FC 0–1–1 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (2 last)

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners3-1Valmiera FC
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners2-2Valmiera FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valmiera FC 1611 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1563

	Valmiera FC	Draw	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Our model	48%	23%	29%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1611 vs 1563).
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valmiera FC	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 0.8	2.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	1.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.8	4 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:41 +7’	1.83	4.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera FC 0–1–1 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	3-1 HT 0-1	Valmiera FC
22/06/25 Latvia Cup	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	2-2 HT 0-1	Valmiera FC

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	20	16	3	1	58	19	51
2	Metta/LU	20	16	3	1	86	16	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	20	14	4	2	37	22	46
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	20	13	5	2	46	21	44
5	JDFS Alberts	20	11	4	5	41	28	37
6	Marupes SC	20	9	1	10	34	32	28
7	Skanstes SK	20	8	2	10	43	41	26
8	Riga FC II	20	7	4	9	29	37	25
9	SK Super Nova II	20	6	7	7	28	30	25
10	RFS II	20	4	3	13	31	56	15
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	20	3	4	13	27	57	13
12	JFK Ventspils	19	2	6	11	20	40	12
13	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	19	3	3	13	23	59	12
14	Rezeknes FA	20	1	3	16	16	61	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valmiera FC	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
JDFS Alberts	2-1 W	4-0 W
Rezeknes FA	6-1 W	5-0 W
Marupes SC	4-1 W	2-0 W
FK Smiltene/BJSS	4-1 W	1-4 L
RFS II	2-1 W	3-1 W
Riga FC II	3-0 W	3-1 W
Saldus SS/Leevon	4-1 W	1-2 L
JFK Ventspils	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valmiera FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-2	1	10	D
30/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	6-1	–	–	W
22/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
08/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
01/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	7	W
27/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
18/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
05/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
28/06	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	10	5	W

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-4	17	10	L
05/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	5-0	11	5	W
29/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
24/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-1	1	5	W
09/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
31/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	3	10	W
25/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	13	4	D
18/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-0	9	2	W
27/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valmiera FC vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valmiera FC win (49%). Probabilities: Valmiera FC 49%, draw 23%, FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 29%.

How many goals are expected in Valmiera FC vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Valmiera FC 2.06 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1.56), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valmiera FC vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.