Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: JDFS Alberts vs Metta/LU

Team pages: JDFS Alberts · Metta/LU

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.1Total

JDFS Alberts1.25

Metta/LU2.85

1X2

14% 16% 70%

JDFS Alberts Draw Metta/LU

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JDFS Alberts 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Metta/LU 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts 0–1 Metta/LU (1 last)

Metta/LU4-1JDFS Alberts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JDFS Alberts 1541 · Metta/LU 1618

	JDFS Alberts	Draw	Metta/LU
Our model	14%	17%	70%
Market	14%	16%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 4.1 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metta/LU (rating 1541 vs 1618).
High corners: 16.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JDFS Alberts	Metta/LU
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	2.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.7	4.8 / 9.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.50

X5.50

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.90

2 (-1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +53’	6.50	5.50	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JDFS Alberts 0–0–1 Metta/LU

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Metta/LU	4-1 HT 3-0	JDFS Alberts

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	20	16	3	1	58	19	51
2	Metta/LU	20	16	3	1	86	16	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	20	14	4	2	37	22	46
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	20	13	5	2	46	21	44
5	JDFS Alberts	20	11	4	5	41	28	37
6	Marupes SC	20	9	1	10	34	32	28
7	Skanstes SK	20	8	2	10	43	41	26
8	Riga FC II	20	7	4	9	29	37	25
9	SK Super Nova II	20	6	7	7	28	30	25
10	RFS II	20	4	3	13	31	56	15
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	20	3	4	13	27	57	13
12	JFK Ventspils	19	2	6	11	20	40	12
13	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	19	3	3	13	23	59	12
14	Rezeknes FA	20	1	3	16	16	61	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JDFS Alberts	Metta/LU
Valmiera FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
FK Smiltene/BJSS	3-2 W	6-0 W
Marupes SC	2-0 W	4-0 W
RFS II	3-1 W	12-1 W
Riga FC II	2-0 W	2-2 D
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 D	9-0 W
JFK Ventspils	3-1 W	7-0 W
Rezeknes FA	4-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Metta/LU (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JDFS Alberts

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-2	4	6	L
05/09	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-2	10	10	W
29/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	9	4	W
22/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
08/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
03/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	3-1	12	2	W
04/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
27/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	7	4	W

Metta/LU

WWWWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	7-0	5	2	W
05/09	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-2	14	10	D
29/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	6-0	–	–	W
23/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	9-1	12-1	16	8	W
01/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-2	9	5	D
27/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	6-0	9-0	14	0	W
18/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
04/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	10	2	W
28/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JDFS Alberts vs Metta/LU?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Metta/LU win (70%). Probabilities: JDFS Alberts 14%, draw 16%, Metta/LU 70%.

How many goals are expected in JDFS Alberts vs Metta/LU?

The model expects 4.1 goals (JDFS Alberts 1.25 · Metta/LU 2.85), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JDFS Alberts vs Metta/LU?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.