Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 19/09, 17:00

Prediction: SK Super Nova II vs FK Smiltene/BJSS

Team pages: SK Super Nova II · FK Smiltene/BJSS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

SK Super Nova II2.06

FK Smiltene/BJSS1.41

1X2

52% 23% 25%

SK Super Nova II Draw FK Smiltene/BJSS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Super Nova II 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWLDLD

FK Smiltene/BJSS 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLLW

Head-to-head

SK Super Nova II 1–0 FK Smiltene/BJSS (1 last)

FK Smiltene/BJSS0-2SK Super Nova II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Super Nova II 1490 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1443

	SK Super Nova II	Draw	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Super Nova II (rating 1490 vs 1443).
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Super Nova II	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.8 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.6	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +57’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova II 1–0–0 FK Smiltene/BJSS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-2 HT 0-0	SK Super Nova II

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	20	16	3	1	58	19	51
2	Metta/LU	20	16	3	1	86	16	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	20	14	4	2	37	22	46
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	20	13	5	2	46	21	44
5	JDFS Alberts	20	11	4	5	41	28	37
6	Marupes SC	20	9	1	10	34	32	28
7	Skanstes SK	20	8	2	10	43	41	26
8	Riga FC II	20	7	4	9	29	37	25
9	SK Super Nova II	20	6	7	7	28	30	25
10	RFS II	20	4	3	13	31	56	15
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	20	3	4	13	27	57	13
12	JFK Ventspils	19	2	6	11	20	40	12
13	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	19	3	3	13	23	59	12
14	Rezeknes FA	20	1	3	16	16	61	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Super Nova II	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Rezeknes FA	2-2 D	1-0 W
Saldus SS/Leevon	1-2 L	2-4 L
Skanstes SK	1-1 D	2-4 L
Marupes SC	1-2 L	1-2 L
JFK Ventspils	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	0-3 L	4-1 W
JDFS Alberts	1-1 D	2-3 L
RFS II	1-1 D	3-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: SK Super Nova II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Super Nova II

WDLDLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	3	3	L
23/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
15/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
08/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	10	L
25/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
19/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
05/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	1	3	W

FK Smiltene/BJSS

LLWLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-1	2	10	W
05/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	2-3	8	10	L
29/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-6	–	–	L
23/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-3	2-4	3	2	L
08/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-4	2	3	L
02/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
25/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-4	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova II vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Super Nova II win (52%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova II 52%, draw 23%, FK Smiltene/BJSS 25%.

How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova II vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model expects 3.46 goals (SK Super Nova II 2.06 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1.41), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Super Nova II vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.