Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 20/09, 18:00

Prediction: JFK Ventspils vs Skanstes SK

Team pages: JFK Ventspils · Skanstes SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

JFK Ventspils1.63

Skanstes SK1.69

1X2

36% 25% 39%

JFK Ventspils Draw Skanstes SK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

JFK Ventspils 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLDLLDLL

Skanstes SK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWDWLW

Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils 1–2–3 Skanstes SK (6 last)

Skanstes SK0-3JFK Ventspils
Skanstes SK0-0JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils2-2Skanstes SK
JFK Ventspils1-2Skanstes SK
Skanstes SK3-0JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils0-1Skanstes SK

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Skanstes SK (rating 1430 vs 1494).
H2H favours Skanstes SK: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JFK Ventspils	Skanstes SK
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.3	2.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 31.94

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 17:41

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.31 → 2.54▲	Pinn 2.54
X	3.75 → 3.86▲	Pinn 3.86
2	2.35 → 2.18▼	Pinn 2.18

See the full journey (5)

Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:31 +37’	2.31	3.75	2.35
08:58 +21’	2.55▲	3.75	2.15▼
12:06 +37’	2.63▲	3.75	2.09▼
14:14 +80’	2.18▼	3.90▲	2.44▲
17:33 +8’	2.54▲	3.86▼	2.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JFK Ventspils 1–2–3 Skanstes SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	0-3 HT 0-3	JFK Ventspils
25/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	0-0 HT 0-0	JFK Ventspils
28/06/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	2-2 HT 0-1	Skanstes SK
19/10/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	1-2 HT 1-0	Skanstes SK
29/06/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	3-0 HT 3-0	JFK Ventspils
12/11/23 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-1 HT 0-0	Skanstes SK

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	21	17	3	1	89	17	54
2	Valmiera FC	21	16	3	2	60	23	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	21	15	4	2	43	25	49
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	21	14	5	2	50	23	47
5	JDFS Alberts	21	11	4	6	42	31	37
6	Marupes SC	20	9	1	10	34	32	28
7	Skanstes SK	20	8	2	10	43	41	26
8	Riga FC II	20	7	4	9	29	37	25
9	SK Super Nova II	21	6	7	8	28	32	25
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	21	4	4	13	29	57	16
11	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	20	4	3	13	26	60	15
12	RFS II	21	4	3	14	34	62	15
13	JFK Ventspils	19	2	6	11	20	40	12
14	Rezeknes FA	21	1	3	17	17	64	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JFK Ventspils	Skanstes SK
Metta/LU	0-7 L	1-3 L
RFS II	1-4 L	4-3 W
Riga FC II	1-1 D	2-3 L
SK Super Nova II	0-2 L	1-1 D
Rezeknes FA	1-1 D	5-1 W
Valmiera FC	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Skanstes SK (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JFK Ventspils

LDWLDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-7	2	2	L
05/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-4	2	4	L
29/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L

Skanstes SK

LLLLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-3	5	6	W
07/09	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-3	2	4	L
30/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	5-2	6-2	2	2	W
23/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
01/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
25/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
18/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
11/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-3	10	4	L
04/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JFK Ventspils vs Skanstes SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Skanstes SK win (39%). Probabilities: JFK Ventspils 36%, draw 25%, Skanstes SK 39%.

How many goals are expected in JFK Ventspils vs Skanstes SK?

The model expects 3.32 goals (JFK Ventspils 1.63 · Skanstes SK 1.69), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JFK Ventspils vs Skanstes SK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.