Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 14/09, 22:00

Prediction: Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II

Team pages: Portland Timbers II · St Louis City II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Portland Timbers II1.31

St Louis City II1.32

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Portland Timbers II Draw St Louis City II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Timbers II 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWDWD

St Louis City II 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDWDDW

Head-to-head

Portland Timbers II 2–1–3 St Louis City II (6 last)

St Louis City II1-2Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II2-1St Louis City II
St Louis City II6-3Portland Timbers II
St Louis City II1-1Portland Timbers II
St Louis City II4-1Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II1-2St Louis City II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Timbers II 1586 · St Louis City II 1498

	Portland Timbers II	Draw	St Louis City II
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers II (rating 1586 vs 1498).
H2H favours St Louis City II: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Timbers II	St Louis City II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:05 +19’	1.95	3.60	3.10
23:01 +2’	2.45▲	3.50▼	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers II 2–1–3 St Louis City II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	St Louis City II	1-2 HT 0-0	Portland Timbers II
05/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Portland Timbers II	2-1 HT 2-0	St Louis City II
24/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	St Louis City II	6-3 HT 1-2	Portland Timbers II
08/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	St Louis City II	1-1 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers II
19/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	St Louis City II	4-1 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers II
26/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Portland Timbers II	1-2 HT 1-2	St Louis City II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Austin FC II	26	17	6	3	51	21	59
2	Portland Timbers II	26	14	8	4	35	27	54
3	Houston Dynamo II	26	14	5	7	51	30	51
4	Ventura County FC	26	13	7	6	54	34	50
5	St Louis City II	26	10	9	7	41	37	43
6	Los Angeles FC II	26	10	9	7	43	44	42
7	Tacoma Defiance	26	11	4	11	39	40	39
8	North Texas SC	26	8	9	9	41	39	38
9	Minnesota United FC II	25	10	5	10	35	36	37
10	The Town	26	9	6	11	45	36	36
11	Real Monarchs SLC	25	7	4	14	36	50	29
12	Vancouver Whitecaps II	26	6	5	15	38	55	27
13	Sporting Kansas City II	26	5	4	17	32	68	20
14	Colorado Rapids II	26	3	7	16	26	50	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Timbers II	St Louis City II
Vancouver Whitecaps II	0-0 D	1-1 D
North Texas SC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Real Monarchs SLC	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Timbers II

WDWWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
30/08	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-1	1	7	W
24/08	Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
16/08	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
08/08	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
01/08	Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	1	3	W
26/07	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
19/07	St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	2-1	7	2	W
12/07	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
06/07	Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	2-0	4	4	W

St Louis City II

LLLDWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	4	0	W
29/08	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
24/08	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
17/08	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
09/08	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
03/08	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
27/07	Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
19/07	Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
12/07	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
05/07	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Louis City II win (37%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers II 36%, draw 27%, St Louis City II 37%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Portland Timbers II 1.31 · St Louis City II 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.