Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/09, 23:00
Prediction: St Louis City II vs Austin FC II
Team pages: St Louis City II · Austin FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
St Louis City II1.38
Austin FC II1.2
1X2
St Louis City II
Draw
Austin FC II
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
St Louis City II
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Austin FC II
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Louis City II
3–1–2
Austin FC II
(6 last)
- St Louis City II0-2Austin FC II
- Austin FC II4-1St Louis City II
- Austin FC II1-2St Louis City II
- Austin FC II2-4St Louis City II
- St Louis City II0-0Austin FC II
- St Louis City II3-2Austin FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Louis City II 1499 · Austin FC II 1574
| St Louis City II | Draw | Austin FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Austin FC II (rating 1499 vs 1574).
- H2H favours St Louis City II: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Louis City II | Austin FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Louis City II 3–1–2 Austin FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Austin FC II |
| 18/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 4-1 HT 2-0 | St Louis City II |
| 20/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 1-2 HT 1-1 | St Louis City II |
| 12/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 2-4 HT 0-4 | St Louis City II |
| 30/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Austin FC II |
| 03/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Austin FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 21 | 62 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 36 | 28 | 56 |
| 3 | Ventura County FC | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 57 | 34 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo II | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 30 | 52 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 45 | 45 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 7 | Minnesota United FC II | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 40 | 42 |
| 8 | North Texas SC | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 40 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 43 | 39 |
| 10 | The Town | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 36 | 39 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 39 | 58 | 30 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 60 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 33 | 73 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 51 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Louis City II | Austin FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers II | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Sporting Kansas City II | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| North Texas SC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Houston Dynamo II | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| The Town | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Colorado Rapids II | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 5 D 0 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Austin FC II (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 17/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 19/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Austin FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 24/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 20/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 27/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 23/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Louis City II vs Austin FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Louis City II win (41%). Probabilities: St Louis City II 41%, draw 27%, Austin FC II 32%.
How many goals are expected in St Louis City II vs Austin FC II?
The model expects 2.57 goals (St Louis City II 1.38 · Austin FC II 1.2), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in St Louis City II vs Austin FC II?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.