Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/09, 23:00
Prediction: Real Monarchs SLC vs Ventura County FC
Team pages: Real Monarchs SLC · Ventura County FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.32Total
Real Monarchs SLC1.53
Ventura County FC1.79
1X2
Real Monarchs SLC
Draw
Ventura County FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Monarchs SLC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Ventura County FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Monarchs SLC
1–2–3
Ventura County FC
(6 last)
- Ventura County FC3-1Real Monarchs SLC
- Ventura County FC2-0Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC2-1Ventura County FC
- Ventura County FC3-3Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC1-2Ventura County FC
- Real Monarchs SLC1-1Ventura County FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Monarchs SLC 1419 · Ventura County FC 1602
| Real Monarchs SLC | Draw | Ventura County FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ventura County FC (rating 1419 vs 1602).
- H2H favours Ventura County FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Monarchs SLC | Ventura County FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.4 | 2.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 3.1 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Monarchs SLC 1–2–3 Ventura County FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 13/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 15/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Ventura County FC |
| 02/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 07/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ventura County FC |
| 06/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ventura County FC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 21 | 62 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 36 | 28 | 56 |
| 3 | Ventura County FC | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 57 | 34 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo II | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 30 | 52 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 45 | 45 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 7 | Minnesota United FC II | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 40 | 42 |
| 8 | North Texas SC | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 40 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 43 | 39 |
| 10 | The Town | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 36 | 39 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 39 | 58 | 30 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 60 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 33 | 73 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 51 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Monarchs SLC | Ventura County FC |
|---|---|---|
| The Town | 0-4 L | 3-1 W |
| North Texas SC | 1-4 L | 6-1 W |
| Tacoma Defiance | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Colorado Rapids II | 1-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Houston Dynamo II | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Portland Timbers II | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 5 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Ventura County FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Monarchs SLC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/09 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 20/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Ventura County FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/09 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 29/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 08/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 13 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Monarchs SLC vs Ventura County FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ventura County FC win (44%). Probabilities: Real Monarchs SLC 32%, draw 24%, Ventura County FC 44%.
How many goals are expected in Real Monarchs SLC vs Ventura County FC?
The model expects 3.32 goals (Real Monarchs SLC 1.53 · Ventura County FC 1.79), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Monarchs SLC vs Ventura County FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.