Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/09, 23:00
Prediction: Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II
Team pages: Tacoma Defiance · Portland Timbers II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Tacoma Defiance1.4
Portland Timbers II1.33
1X2
Tacoma Defiance
Draw
Portland Timbers II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Tacoma Defiance
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Portland Timbers II
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tacoma Defiance
1–5
Portland Timbers II
(6 last)
- Tacoma Defiance0-2Portland Timbers II
- Portland Timbers II1-0Tacoma Defiance
- Portland Timbers II2-1Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance1-2Portland Timbers II
- Portland Timbers II2-1Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance5-2Portland Timbers II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tacoma Defiance 1503 · Portland Timbers II 1581
| Tacoma Defiance | Draw | Portland Timbers II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers II (rating 1503 vs 1581).
- H2H favours Portland Timbers II: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tacoma Defiance | Portland Timbers II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.9 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.1 | 1.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacoma Defiance 1–0–5 Portland Timbers II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 31/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 25/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 28/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Portland Timbers II |
| 19/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 09/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 5-2 HT 0-0 | Portland Timbers II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 21 | 62 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 36 | 28 | 56 |
| 3 | Ventura County FC | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 57 | 34 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo II | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 30 | 52 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 45 | 45 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 7 | Minnesota United FC II | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 40 | 42 |
| 8 | North Texas SC | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 40 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 43 | 39 |
| 10 | The Town | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 36 | 39 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 39 | 58 | 30 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 60 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 33 | 73 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 51 | 18 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tacoma Defiance | Portland Timbers II |
|---|---|---|
| Ventura County FC | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Los Angeles FC II | 3-4 L | 0-0 D |
| North Texas SC | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 4-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Portland Timbers II (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Portland Timbers II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 30/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 24/08 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 19/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tacoma Defiance win (38%). Probabilities: Tacoma Defiance 38%, draw 26%, Portland Timbers II 35%.
How many goals are expected in Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Tacoma Defiance 1.4 · Portland Timbers II 1.33), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.