Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/09, 23:00

Prediction: Houston Dynamo II vs Sporting Kansas City II

Team pages: Houston Dynamo II · Sporting Kansas City II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Houston Dynamo II2.59

Sporting Kansas City II1.18

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Houston Dynamo II Draw Sporting Kansas City II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dynamo II 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDDLLWD

Sporting Kansas City II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Houston Dynamo II 3–2–1 Sporting Kansas City II (6 last)

Sporting Kansas City II3-2Houston Dynamo II
Sporting Kansas City II1-2Houston Dynamo II
Sporting Kansas City II1-3Houston Dynamo II
Houston Dynamo II1-1Sporting Kansas City II
Houston Dynamo II3-1Sporting Kansas City II
Sporting Kansas City II2-2Houston Dynamo II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo II 1502 · Sporting Kansas City II 1416

	Houston Dynamo II	Draw	Sporting Kansas City II
Our model	67%	18%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo II (rating 1502 vs 1416).
H2H favours Houston Dynamo II: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dynamo II	Sporting Kansas City II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.35
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.12
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.41 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:55 +3’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +37’	1.34	5.18	6.44
23:11 +26’	1.35▲	5.12▼	6.41▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo II 3–2–1 Sporting Kansas City II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Sporting Kansas City II	3-2 HT 1-1	Houston Dynamo II
26/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Sporting Kansas City II	1-2 HT 0-2	Houston Dynamo II
17/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Sporting Kansas City II	1-3 HT 1-2	Houston Dynamo II
08/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Houston Dynamo II	1-1 HT 0-1	Sporting Kansas City II
09/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Houston Dynamo II	3-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City II
08/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Sporting Kansas City II	2-2 HT 1-1	Houston Dynamo II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Austin FC II	27	18	6	3	52	21	62
2	Portland Timbers II	27	14	9	4	36	28	56
3	Ventura County FC	27	14	7	6	57	34	53
4	Houston Dynamo II	27	14	6	7	51	30	52
5	Los Angeles FC II	27	11	9	7	48	45	45
6	St Louis City II	27	10	10	7	42	38	44
7	Minnesota United FC II	27	11	6	10	44	40	42
8	North Texas SC	27	8	10	9	41	39	40
9	Tacoma Defiance	27	11	4	12	39	43	39
10	The Town	27	10	6	11	49	36	39
11	Real Monarchs SLC	27	7	5	15	39	58	30
12	Vancouver Whitecaps II	27	6	5	16	39	60	27
13	Sporting Kansas City II	27	5	4	18	33	73	20
14	Colorado Rapids II	27	3	7	17	26	51	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dynamo II	Sporting Kansas City II
Austin FC II	0-2 L	0-1 L
Minnesota United FC II	0-2 L	1-0 W
St Louis City II	2-2 D	1-2 L
The Town	1-1 D	1-6 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Houston Dynamo II

DLWLDDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
10/09	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
05/09	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
31/08	Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
24/08	St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-2	4	0	D
20/08	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
15/08	Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-2	12	1	L
09/08	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
01/08	Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-3	2	6	L
27/07	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Sporting Kansas City II

LWWLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-3	1-5	3	2	L
06/09	St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-2	7	0	L
31/08	Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-5	0	4	L
25/08	Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League	0-3	0-4	2	2	L
21/08	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
16/08	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-2	8	5	D
10/08	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
01/08	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
20/07	Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
08/07	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	1-3	1-6	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo II vs Sporting Kansas City II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo II win (67%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo II 67%, draw 18%, Sporting Kansas City II 15%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo II vs Sporting Kansas City II?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Houston Dynamo II 2.59 · Sporting Kansas City II 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo II vs Sporting Kansas City II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.