Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 13/09, 21:00
Prediction: Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II
Team pages: Chicago Fire II · Philadelphia Union II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.27Total
Chicago Fire II2.59
Philadelphia Union II1.68
1X2
Chicago Fire II
Draw
Philadelphia Union II
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Chicago Fire II
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Philadelphia Union II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chicago Fire II
3–1–2
Philadelphia Union II
(6 last)
- Philadelphia Union II5-2Chicago Fire II
- Chicago Fire II2-0Philadelphia Union II
- Chicago Fire II2-1Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II3-2Chicago Fire II
- Chicago Fire II1-1Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II2-5Chicago Fire II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chicago Fire II 1485 · Philadelphia Union II 1536
| Chicago Fire II | Draw | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 20% | 24% |
| Market | 56% | 21% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.27 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union II (rating 1485 vs 1536).
- H2H favours Chicago Fire II: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chicago Fire II | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 2.1 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/0/60% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire II 3–1–2 Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 5-2 HT 2-0 | Chicago Fire II |
| 16/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 06/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 10/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Chicago Fire II |
| 29/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 19/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 2-5 HT 0-1 | Chicago Fire II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 36 | 54 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 51 | 38 | 50 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 40 | 45 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 45 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 45 | 44 |
| 6 | CT United | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 49 | 43 |
| 7 | New England Revolution II | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | 43 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 43 | 42 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 51 | 41 |
| 10 | Toronto FC II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 50 | 39 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 45 | 39 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 45 | 38 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 50 | 28 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 15 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chicago Fire II | Philadelphia Union II |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew II | 0-4 L | 1-0 W |
| FC Cincinnati II | 7-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chicago Fire II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
4-2 | 7-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 12 | L |
| 17/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire II win (56%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire II 56%, draw 20%, Philadelphia Union II 23%.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II?
The model expects 4.27 goals (Chicago Fire II 2.59 · Philadelphia Union II 1.68), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.