Football · USA USL League One · 12/09, 01:00
Prediction: One Knoxville SC vs FC Naples
Team pages: One Knoxville SC · FC Naples
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
One Knoxville SC1.78
FC Naples1
1X2
One Knoxville SC
Draw
FC Naples
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
One Knoxville SC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
FC Naples
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
One Knoxville SC
3–1–0
FC Naples
(4 last)
- FC Naples0-3One Knoxville SC
- One Knoxville SC1-0FC Naples
- One Knoxville SC0-0FC Naples
- FC Naples0-1One Knoxville SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · One Knoxville SC 1533 · FC Naples 1434
| One Knoxville SC | Draw | FC Naples | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours One Knoxville SC (rating 1533 vs 1434).
- H2H favours One Knoxville SC: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| One Knoxville SC | FC Naples | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.1 | 1.6 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · One Knoxville SC 3–1–0 FC Naples
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 USA USL League One | FC Naples | 0-3 HT 0-1 | One Knoxville SC |
| 09/11/25 USA USL League One | One Knoxville SC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Naples |
| 28/08/25 USA USL League One | One Knoxville SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Naples |
| 20/04/25 USA USL League One | FC Naples | 0-1 HT 0-1 | One Knoxville SC |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 33 | 49 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 27 | 49 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 46 | 24 | 47 |
| 4 | One Knoxville SC | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 27 | 43 |
| 5 | AC Boise | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 33 | 41 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity FC | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 28 | 39 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 36 | 38 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 33 |
| 9 | Antelope Valley Alta | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 36 | 32 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi FC | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 34 | 30 |
| 11 | FC Naples | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 26 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 38 | 26 |
| 13 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 45 | 26 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 37 | 23 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 28 | 38 | 23 |
| 16 | New York Cosmos | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 48 | 22 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 19 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | One Knoxville SC | FC Naples |
|---|---|---|
| Antelope Valley Alta | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Forward Madison FC | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| AC Boise | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Portland Hearts of Pine | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Greenville Triumph SC | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: One Knoxville SC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
One Knoxville SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/09 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 20/08 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 16/07 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
FC Naples
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/08 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 26/07 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in One Knoxville SC vs FC Naples?
According to our model, the most likely result is a One Knoxville SC win (55%). Probabilities: One Knoxville SC 55%, draw 25%, FC Naples 20%.
How many goals are expected in One Knoxville SC vs FC Naples?
The model expects 2.78 goals (One Knoxville SC 1.78 · FC Naples 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in One Knoxville SC vs FC Naples?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.