Football · USA USL League One · 20/09, 01:30

Prediction: Fort Wayne FC vs FC Naples

Team pages: Fort Wayne FC · FC Naples

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Fort Wayne FC1.79

FC Naples1.33

1X2

47% 25% 27%

Fort Wayne FC Draw FC Naples

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fort Wayne FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Naples 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fort Wayne FC 0–1 FC Naples (1 last)

FC Naples2-0Fort Wayne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fort Wayne FC 1456 · FC Naples 1469

	Fort Wayne FC	Draw	FC Naples
Our model	47%	25%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fort Wayne FC	FC Naples
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.90▲	Bet365 1.90
X	3.70 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.51
2	3.90 → 3.30▼	Pinn 4.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +17’	1.70	3.70	3.90
23:13 +5’	1.90▲	3.50▼	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +196’	1.95	3.35	3.56
01:33 +107’	1.78▼	3.51▲	4.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fort Wayne FC 0–0–1 FC Naples

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-0 HT 1-0	Fort Wayne FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	27	17	4	6	48	29	55
2	Charlotte Independence	26	16	5	5	61	38	53
3	Forward Madison FC	26	14	6	6	47	26	48
4	One Knoxville SC	26	13	8	5	43	29	47
5	AC Boise	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	25	13	3	9	46	37	42
7	Spokane Velocity FC	23	12	3	8	34	31	39
8	Fort Wayne FC	25	10	6	9	39	33	36
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	27	8	8	11	34	37	32
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	26	7	8	11	38	45	29
12	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
13	Sarasota Paradise	25	7	6	12	27	39	27
14	Westchester SC	26	7	5	14	44	44	26
15	Greenville Triumph SC	25	6	5	14	29	42	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	25	5	5	15	24	51	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fort Wayne FC	FC Naples
One Knoxville SC	2-3 L	0-0 D
Greenville Triumph SC	3-1 W	0-4 L
New York Cosmos	2-4 L	0-1 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	4-1 W	2-3 L
Antelope Valley Alta	0-3 L	2-1 W
Union Omaha	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Naples (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fort Wayne FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
13/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	7	W
06/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-2	2-4	9	7	L
03/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
16/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
26/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	10	6	L
19/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	1	5	W

FC Naples

LLLWLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
27/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
16/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
06/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
26/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
09/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fort Wayne FC vs FC Naples?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fort Wayne FC win (47%). Probabilities: Fort Wayne FC 47%, draw 25%, FC Naples 27%.

How many goals are expected in Fort Wayne FC vs FC Naples?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Fort Wayne FC 1.79 · FC Naples 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fort Wayne FC vs FC Naples?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.