Football · USA USL League One · 20/09, 02:00

Prediction: Union Omaha vs One Knoxville SC

Team pages: Union Omaha · One Knoxville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Union Omaha1.76

One Knoxville SC1.23

1X2

49% 26% 26%

Union Omaha Draw One Knoxville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Omaha 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLDWWW

One Knoxville SC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDDWDW

Head-to-head

Union Omaha 4–1–1 One Knoxville SC (6 last)

One Knoxville SC1-2Union Omaha
Union Omaha2-2One Knoxville SC
One Knoxville SC1-0Union Omaha
Union Omaha1-0One Knoxville SC
One Knoxville SC0-1Union Omaha
Union Omaha3-1One Knoxville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Omaha 1586 · One Knoxville SC 1498

	Union Omaha	Draw	One Knoxville SC
Our model	49%	26%	26%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Omaha (rating 1586 vs 1498).
H2H favours Union Omaha: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Omaha	One Knoxville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 7.1	2.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.5	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.61
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.81 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +13’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +180’	1.81	3.61	3.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Omaha 4–1–1 One Knoxville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-2 HT 1-1	Union Omaha
21/09/25 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	2-2 HT 2-1	One Knoxville SC
17/08/25 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Omaha
22/09/24 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	1-0 HT 1-0	One Knoxville SC
13/04/24 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Union Omaha
06/08/23 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	3-1 HT 1-0	One Knoxville SC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	27	17	4	6	48	29	55
2	Charlotte Independence	26	16	5	5	61	38	53
3	Forward Madison FC	26	14	6	6	47	26	48
4	One Knoxville SC	26	13	8	5	43	29	47
5	AC Boise	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	25	13	3	9	46	37	42
7	Spokane Velocity FC	23	12	3	8	34	31	39
8	Fort Wayne FC	25	10	6	9	39	33	36
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	27	8	8	11	34	37	32
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	26	7	8	11	38	45	29
12	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
13	Sarasota Paradise	25	7	6	12	27	39	27
14	Westchester SC	26	7	5	14	44	44	26
15	Greenville Triumph SC	25	6	5	14	29	42	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	25	5	5	15	24	51	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Omaha	One Knoxville SC
Charlotte Independence	2-0 W	1-3 L
FC Naples	0-2 L	0-0 D
Sarasota Paradise	1-1 D	2-1 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-1 W	0-1 L
Fort Wayne FC	2-0 W	3-2 W
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Omaha (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Omaha

WWWWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
13/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
06/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
30/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
27/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
23/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	8	D
17/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	3-1	5-1	13	4	W
09/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	8	5	W
02/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	4	6	W

One Knoxville SC

LLWDDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	3-2	12	6	W
12/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
06/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
03/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
23/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	1	3	D
20/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
16/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
02/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Omaha vs One Knoxville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Omaha win (49%). Probabilities: Union Omaha 49%, draw 26%, One Knoxville SC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Union Omaha vs One Knoxville SC?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Union Omaha 1.76 · One Knoxville SC 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Omaha vs One Knoxville SC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.