Football · USA USL League One · 20/09, 01:30

Prediction: Sarasota Paradise vs Greenville Triumph SC

Team pages: Sarasota Paradise · Greenville Triumph SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Sarasota Paradise1.46

Greenville Triumph SC1.25

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Sarasota Paradise Draw Greenville Triumph SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarasota Paradise 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWDWDD

Greenville Triumph SC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDDLWLLL

Head-to-head

Sarasota Paradise 0–1–0 Greenville Triumph SC (1 last)

Greenville Triumph SC0-0Sarasota Paradise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarasota Paradise 1486 · Greenville Triumph SC 1444

	Sarasota Paradise	Draw	Greenville Triumph SC
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarasota Paradise (rating 1486 vs 1444).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarasota Paradise	Greenville Triumph SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.26 ★
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	3.30 → 2.80▼	Pinn 2.82

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +20’	1.90	3.50	3.30
23:02 +16’	2.15▲	3.40▼	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +134’	2.10	3.43	3.02
21:30 +108’	2.15▲	3.29▼	2.86▼
01:31 +109’	2.19▲	3.39▲	2.94▲
14:17 +36’	2.26▲	3.39	2.82▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarasota Paradise 0–1–0 Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/07/26 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarasota Paradise

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	27	17	4	6	48	29	55
2	Charlotte Independence	26	16	5	5	61	38	53
3	Forward Madison FC	26	14	6	6	47	26	48
4	One Knoxville SC	26	13	8	5	43	29	47
5	AC Boise	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	25	13	3	9	46	37	42
7	Spokane Velocity FC	23	12	3	8	34	31	39
8	Fort Wayne FC	25	10	6	9	39	33	36
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	27	8	8	11	34	37	32
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	26	7	8	11	38	45	29
12	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
13	Sarasota Paradise	25	7	6	12	27	39	27
14	Westchester SC	26	7	5	14	44	44	26
15	Greenville Triumph SC	25	6	5	14	29	42	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	25	5	5	15	24	51	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarasota Paradise	Greenville Triumph SC
Forward Madison FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Spokane Velocity FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-2 W	1-3 L
Charlotte Independence	1-3 L	0-1 L
One Knoxville SC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Corpus Christi FC	1-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Greenville Triumph SC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarasota Paradise

LDDLLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L

Greenville Triumph SC

WDLDDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
13/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-2	1-3	9	7	L
06/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
30/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
23/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
13/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
09/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
02/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-3	3-3	11	2	D
30/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarasota Paradise vs Greenville Triumph SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarasota Paradise win (41%). Probabilities: Sarasota Paradise 41%, draw 27%, Greenville Triumph SC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Sarasota Paradise vs Greenville Triumph SC?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Sarasota Paradise 1.46 · Greenville Triumph SC 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarasota Paradise vs Greenville Triumph SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.