Football · USA USL League One · 20/09, 01:00

Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs Antelope Valley Alta

Team pages: Forward Madison FC · Antelope Valley Alta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Forward Madison FC1.96

Antelope Valley Alta0.92

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Forward Madison FC Draw Antelope Valley Alta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Forward Madison FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWDWDL

Antelope Valley Alta 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Forward Madison FC 0–2–1 Antelope Valley Alta (3 last)

Antelope Valley Alta2-0Forward Madison FC
Antelope Valley Alta3-3Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC0-0Antelope Valley Alta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1535 · Antelope Valley Alta 1447

	Forward Madison FC	Draw	Antelope Valley Alta
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1535 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forward Madison FC	Antelope Valley Alta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.5	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.55 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:28 +7’	1.45	4.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +115’	1.46	4.40	5.57
03:08 +8’	1.55▲	4.14▼	4.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 0–2–1 Antelope Valley Alta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	2-0 HT 2-0	Forward Madison FC
07/09/25 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	3-3 HT 2-2	Forward Madison FC
03/08/25 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Antelope Valley Alta

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	27	17	4	6	48	29	55
2	Charlotte Independence	26	16	5	5	61	38	53
3	Forward Madison FC	26	14	6	6	47	26	48
4	One Knoxville SC	26	13	8	5	43	29	47
5	AC Boise	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	25	13	3	9	46	37	42
7	Spokane Velocity FC	23	12	3	8	34	31	39
8	Fort Wayne FC	25	10	6	9	39	33	36
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	27	8	8	11	34	37	32
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	26	7	8	11	38	45	29
12	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
13	Sarasota Paradise	25	7	6	12	27	39	27
14	Westchester SC	26	7	5	14	44	44	26
15	Greenville Triumph SC	25	6	5	14	29	42	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	25	5	5	15	24	51	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forward Madison FC	Antelope Valley Alta
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Richmond Kickers	2-1 W	2-3 L
Charlotte Independence	1-1 D	0-5 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-1 W	0-1 L
Westchester SC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forward Madison FC

WLDWDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
03/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
23/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
17/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
13/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	11	4	D
09/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
02/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	7	6	W

Antelope Valley Alta

WDLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
06/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-4	0-5	2	4	L
23/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
16/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
09/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
06/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
02/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
26/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs Antelope Valley Alta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forward Madison FC win (61%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 61%, draw 22%, Antelope Valley Alta 17%.

How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs Antelope Valley Alta?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Forward Madison FC 1.96 · Antelope Valley Alta 0.92), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs Antelope Valley Alta?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.