Football · Colombia Primera B · 12/10, 00:00
Prediction: Union Magdalena vs Itagui Leones
Team pages: Union Magdalena · Itagui Leones
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Union Magdalena1.85
Itagui Leones0.67
1X2
Union Magdalena
Draw
Itagui Leones
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Magdalena
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Itagui Leones
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Magdalena
3–1–2
Itagui Leones
(6 last)
- Itagui Leones1-3Union Magdalena
- Union Magdalena2-1Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones1-1Union Magdalena
- Itagui Leones1-3Union Magdalena
- Union Magdalena2-3Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones3-0Union Magdalena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Magdalena 1514 · Itagui Leones 1425
| Union Magdalena | Draw | Itagui Leones | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Magdalena (rating 1514 vs 1425).
- H2H favours Union Magdalena: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Magdalena | Itagui Leones | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 10/10/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.3 | 2.4 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Magdalena 3–1–2 Itagui Leones
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Union Magdalena |
| 06/10/24 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Itagui Leones |
| 05/09/24 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Union Magdalena |
| 02/05/24 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Union Magdalena |
| 25/03/24 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Itagui Leones |
| 04/09/21 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Union Magdalena |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Tigres FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 18 |
| 5 | Patriotas FC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 6 | Real Cartagena | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Deportes Quindio | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico Cali FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 9 | Real San Andres | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 15 |
| 10 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| 11 | Bogota FC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| 12 | Envigado FC | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 13 | Union Magdalena | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| 14 | Orsomarso | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| 15 | Itagui Leones | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 10 |
| 16 | Barranquilla FC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Magdalena | Itagui Leones |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors De Cali | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Real Cartagena | 1-1 D | 1-6 L |
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Barranquilla FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Envigado FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportes Quindio | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 0 W 4 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Magdalena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 03/10 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/09 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 13/09 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/08 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
Itagui Leones
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/09 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 12 | 9 | L |
| 28/08 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-4 | 1-6 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 06/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Magdalena vs Itagui Leones?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Magdalena win (65%). Probabilities: Union Magdalena 65%, draw 22%, Itagui Leones 13%.
How many goals are expected in Union Magdalena vs Itagui Leones?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Union Magdalena 1.85 · Itagui Leones 0.67), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Magdalena vs Itagui Leones?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.