Football · Iceland Premier League · 11/10, 21:15

Prediction: Breidablik vs Keflavik

Team pages: Breidablik · Keflavik

See it on the live radar ↗

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Breidablik1.9

Keflavik1.31

1X2

51% 24% 26%

Breidablik Draw Keflavik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Breidablik 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLDLLLWL

Keflavik 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLLLD

Head-to-head

Breidablik 3–2–1 Keflavik (6 last)

Breidablik2-1Keflavik
Keflavik0-0Breidablik
Keflavik2-1Breidablik
Breidablik4-0Keflavik
Breidablik2-1Keflavik
Keflavik0-0Breidablik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Breidablik 1477 · Keflavik 1477

	Breidablik	Draw	Keflavik
Our model	50%	24%	25%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Breidablik: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Breidablik	Keflavik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 7	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 20:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.81
X	3.80 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.30
2	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.75 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:33 +15’	1.80	3.80	3.30
00:43 +2’	1.65▼	4.00▲	3.80▲
12:22 +29’	1.70▲	3.90▼	3.60▼
20:56 +1’	1.75▲	3.90	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:28 +161’	1.84	4.10	3.55
21:16 +26’	1.85▲	4.15▲	3.59▲
09:17 +4’	1.86▲	4.18▲	3.61▲
11:20 +6’	1.85▼	4.25▲	3.59▼
12:01 +50’	1.88▲	4.26▲	3.51▼
14:06 +43’	1.89▲	4.20▼	3.50▼
17:16 +2’	1.90▲	4.21▲	3.46▼
19:42 +11’	1.90	4.21	3.47▲
20:53 +4’	1.81▼	4.30▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Breidablik 3–2–1 Keflavik

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/07/26 Iceland Premier League	Breidablik	2-1 HT 0-1	Keflavik
22/04/26 Iceland Premier League	Keflavik	0-0 HT 0-0	Breidablik
25/04/24 Iceland Cup	Keflavik	2-1 HT 1-0	Breidablik
07/03/24 Iceland League Cup	Breidablik	4-0 HT 2-0	Keflavik
20/08/23 Iceland Premier League	Breidablik	2-1 HT 1-1	Keflavik
29/05/23 Iceland Premier League	Keflavik	0-0 HT 0-0	Breidablik

Standings · Iceland Premier League · Besta deild 2026, Championship Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	24	18	5	1	73	23	59
2	KR Reykjavik	25	15	5	5	82	53	50
3	Fram Reykjavik	25	13	7	5	60	49	46
4	Breidablik	24	9	6	9	47	46	33
5	IA Akranes	24	9	6	9	44	47	33
6	Keflavik	24	8	5	11	36	44	29

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Breidablik	Keflavik
IA Akranes	1-4 L	5-2 W
Fram Reykjavik	3-1 W	2-2 D
KA Akureyri	1-2 L	3-0 W
Stjarnan	0-2 L	0-1 L
Valur Reykjavik	1-3 L	1-2 L
Thor Akureyri	0-1 L	2-0 W
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1-0 W	1-0 W
FH Hafnarfjordur	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Keflavik (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Breidablik

DWLLDLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	0-2	1-4	6	1	L
15/09	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
06/09	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
31/08	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	0-2	0-2	6	5	L
24/08	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-4	3-4	8	4	L
16/08	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	3-1	3-3	7	4	D
09/08	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
04/08	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
27/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
20/07	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

Keflavik

WLWLWWLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
14/09	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-3	1-4	0	0	L
05/09	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
30/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
15/08	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
09/08	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
05/08	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	3-0	3-0	8	7	W
24/07	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-2	1-5	1	3	L
20/07	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	2-0	5-2	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Breidablik vs Keflavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Breidablik win (51%). Probabilities: Breidablik 51%, draw 24%, Keflavik 26%.

How many goals are expected in Breidablik vs Keflavik?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Breidablik 1.9 · Keflavik 1.31), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Breidablik vs Keflavik?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.