Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 17/09, 00:00

Prediction: Portuguesa vs Estudiantes Merida

Team pages: Portuguesa · Estudiantes Merida

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Portuguesa1.22

Estudiantes Merida1.04

1X2

39% 30% 30%

Portuguesa Draw Estudiantes Merida

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Portuguesa 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDDDD

Estudiantes Merida 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWDWDLW

Head-to-head

Portuguesa 1–2–3 Estudiantes Merida (6 last)

Estudiantes Merida2-1Portuguesa
Estudiantes Merida2-0Portuguesa
Portuguesa0-0Estudiantes Merida
Estudiantes Merida2-2Portuguesa
Portuguesa4-2Estudiantes Merida
Estudiantes Merida2-0Portuguesa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portuguesa 1521 · Estudiantes Merida 1535

	Portuguesa	Draw	Estudiantes Merida
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	40%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Estudiantes Merida: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portuguesa	Estudiantes Merida
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.33
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:05 +2’	1.95	3.10	3.50
05:41 +27’	2.25▲	3.00▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:46 +23’	2.37	2.98	3.01
06:53 +14’	2.33▼	2.96▼	3.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portuguesa 1–2–3 Estudiantes Merida

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	2-1 HT 0-1	Portuguesa
21/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	2-0 HT 1-0	Portuguesa
07/08/25 Venezuela Cup	Portuguesa	0-0 HT 0-0	Estudiantes Merida
30/07/25 Venezuela Cup	Estudiantes Merida	2-2 HT 1-0	Portuguesa
12/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	4-2 HT 1-0	Estudiantes Merida
12/10/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Estudiantes Merida	2-0 HT 1-0	Portuguesa

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	9	7	1	1	18	8	22
2	Deportivo Tachira	9	6	1	2	19	11	19
3	Deportivo La Guaira	9	5	1	3	19	11	16
4	Academia Puerto Cabello	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
5	Estudiantes Merida	9	4	3	2	10	9	15
6	Carabobo	9	4	2	3	10	7	14
7	Portuguesa	9	3	5	1	11	9	14
8	UCV	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
9	Monagas	9	3	1	5	10	12	10
10	Caracas	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
11	Trujillanos	9	3	1	5	9	13	10
12	Zamora	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
13	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	9	2	1	6	12	20	7
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	9	1	1	7	5	18	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portuguesa	Estudiantes Merida
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	1-1 D	0-3 L
Zamora	1-1 D	1-0 W
Caracas	1-1 D	2-2 D
Academia Anzoategui FC	4-3 W	1-0 W
Deportivo Tachira	0-1 L	2-0 W
Carabobo	1-0 W	0-1 L
UCV	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Portuguesa (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portuguesa

WWLWWDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
06/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
03/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
31/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	4-3	7	9	W
05/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
31/07	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-2	3	9	W

Estudiantes Merida

LDWLWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
08/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
04/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
31/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
22/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
15/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
10/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-3	6	9	L
06/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
04/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
31/05	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portuguesa vs Estudiantes Merida?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portuguesa win (39%). Probabilities: Portuguesa 39%, draw 30%, Estudiantes Merida 30%.

How many goals are expected in Portuguesa vs Estudiantes Merida?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Portuguesa 1.22 · Estudiantes Merida 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portuguesa vs Estudiantes Merida?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.