Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 13/09, 23:30
Prediction: Caracas vs Monagas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Caracas1.57
Monagas1.12
1X2
Caracas
Draw
Monagas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Caracas
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Monagas
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caracas
1–3–2
Monagas
(6 last)
- Monagas1-1Caracas
- Monagas2-2Caracas
- Caracas1-4Monagas
- Caracas1-2Monagas
- Monagas1-1Caracas
- Caracas3-2Monagas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caracas 1559 · Monagas 1514
| Caracas | Draw | Monagas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caracas (rating 1559 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Monagas: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caracas | Monagas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4 | 0.9 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.6 | 4.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caracas 1–3–2 Monagas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Caracas |
| 28/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Caracas |
| 18/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Monagas |
| 20/09/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Monagas |
| 24/03/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Caracas |
| 28/01/24 Club Friendly List | Caracas | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Monagas |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Deportivo La Guaira | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Estudiantes Merida | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Carabobo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | Portuguesa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | UCV | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | Caracas | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Zamora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 11 | Monagas | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 12 | Trujillanos | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 6 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caracas | Monagas |
|---|---|---|
| Trujillanos | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Portuguesa | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Tachira | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Carabobo | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| UCV | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Estudiantes Merida | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Caracas (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caracas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/09 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 07/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 20/04 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
Monagas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 03/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 05/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caracas vs Monagas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caracas win (46%). Probabilities: Caracas 46%, draw 28%, Monagas 26%.
How many goals are expected in Caracas vs Monagas?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Caracas 1.57 · Monagas 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Caracas vs Monagas?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.