Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 12/09, 23:30
Prediction: Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV
Team pages: Deportivo La Guaira · UCV
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
Deportivo La Guaira1.64
UCV0.92
1X2
Deportivo La Guaira
Draw
UCV
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo La Guaira
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
UCV
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo La Guaira
1–4–1
UCV
(6 last)
- Deportivo La Guaira0-0UCV
- UCV1-1Deportivo La Guaira
- UCV0-1Deportivo La Guaira
- Deportivo La Guaira0-0UCV
- Deportivo La Guaira1-1UCV
- UCV2-0Deportivo La Guaira
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo La Guaira 1536 · UCV 1427
| Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | UCV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo La Guaira (rating 1536 vs 1427).
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo La Guaira | UCV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.3 | 2.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.3 | 5.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo La Guaira 1–4–1 UCV
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 13/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 21/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 18/01/26 Club Friendly List | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 18/09/25 Venezuela Cup | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 HT 0-0 | UCV |
| 11/09/25 Venezuela Cup | UCV | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitanos FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Deportivo La Guaira | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Caracas | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | UCV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 10 | Zamora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 11 | Monagas | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 12 | Trujillanos | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 6 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo La Guaira | UCV |
|---|---|---|
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Estudiantes Merida | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 4-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Zamora | 6-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Caracas | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Metropolitanos FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Monagas | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Portuguesa | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo La Guaira (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo La Guaira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 31/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 12 | W |
| 17/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
4-0 | 6-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
UCV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/09 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/09 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 22/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo La Guaira win (53%). Probabilities: Deportivo La Guaira 53%, draw 27%, UCV 20%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV?
The model expects 2.56 goals (Deportivo La Guaira 1.64 · UCV 0.92), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.