Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Academia Puerto Cabello vs Carabobo

Team pages: Academia Puerto Cabello · Carabobo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Academia Puerto Cabello1.29

Carabobo0.97

1X2

43% 30% 27%

Academia Puerto Cabello Draw Carabobo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Puerto Cabello 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWDWDD

Carabobo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDDLW

Head-to-head

Academia Puerto Cabello 0–2–4 Carabobo (6 last)

Carabobo2-1Academia Puerto Cabello
Carabobo1-1Academia Puerto Cabello
Carabobo1-0Academia Puerto Cabello
Carabobo2-0Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello1-3Carabobo
Carabobo0-0Academia Puerto Cabello

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Puerto Cabello 1545 · Carabobo 1537

	Academia Puerto Cabello	Draw	Carabobo
Our model	42%	31%	27%
Market	43%	30%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carabobo: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Puerto Cabello	Carabobo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	2.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	6.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.07
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.50 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:20 +18’	2.10	3.00	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:21 +17’	2.06	2.99	3.42
01:02 +137’	2.08▲	3.07▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Puerto Cabello 0–2–4 Carabobo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/06/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	2-1 HT 1-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
23/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-1 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
23/11/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-0 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
20/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	2-0 HT 2-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
02/06/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	1-3 HT 0-2	Carabobo
10/05/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	0-0 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Tachira	8	6	1	1	19	9	19
2	Metropolitanos FC	8	6	1	1	16	8	19
3	Deportivo La Guaira	8	5	1	2	19	9	16
4	Academia Puerto Cabello	8	4	3	1	12	5	15
5	Portuguesa	8	3	4	1	10	8	13
6	Estudiantes Merida	8	3	3	2	8	9	12
7	Carabobo	8	3	2	3	8	7	11
8	Caracas	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
9	UCV	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
10	Zamora	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
11	Monagas	8	2	1	5	9	12	7
12	Trujillanos	8	2	1	5	7	12	7
13	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	8	2	0	6	11	19	6
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	8	1	1	6	5	16	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Puerto Cabello	Carabobo
Estudiantes Merida	1-1 D	1-0 W
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	2-0 W	3-4 L
Zamora	1-0 W	0-0 D
Caracas	3-1 W	1-1 D
Metropolitanos FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Academia Puerto Cabello (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia Puerto Cabello

WLLWWWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
04/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
01/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
22/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
16/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
09/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
07/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	3-1	7	4	W
03/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
08/06	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
31/05	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	6	8	W

Carabobo

WWLWLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-4	8	8	L
31/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
17/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
08/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
04/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
31/07	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
08/06	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
31/05	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	5-1	5	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Carabobo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Puerto Cabello win (43%). Probabilities: Academia Puerto Cabello 43%, draw 30%, Carabobo 27%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Carabobo?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Academia Puerto Cabello 1.29 · Carabobo 0.97), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Carabobo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.