Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 12/09, 23:00
Prediction: Estudiantes Merida vs Deportivo Tachira
Team pages: Estudiantes Merida · Deportivo Tachira
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.22Total
Estudiantes Merida0.98
Deportivo Tachira1.24
1X2
Estudiantes Merida
Draw
Deportivo Tachira
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Estudiantes Merida
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Tachira
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estudiantes Merida
1–1–4
Deportivo Tachira
(6 last)
- Deportivo Tachira1-0Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida2-1Deportivo Tachira
- Deportivo Tachira1-0Estudiantes Merida
- Deportivo Tachira4-0Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida2-3Deportivo Tachira
- Estudiantes Merida1-1Deportivo Tachira
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estudiantes Merida 1492 · Deportivo Tachira 1581
| Estudiantes Merida | Draw | Deportivo Tachira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 29% | 29% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Tachira (rating 1492 vs 1581).
- H2H favours Deportivo Tachira: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estudiantes Merida | Deportivo Tachira | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.3 | 2.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 1.1 | 4.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes Merida 1–1–4 Deportivo Tachira
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo Tachira | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 02/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Deportivo Tachira |
| 22/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo Tachira | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 01/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo Tachira | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 28/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Tachira |
| 17/07/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Tachira |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitanos FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Deportivo La Guaira | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Caracas | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | UCV | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 10 | Zamora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 11 | Monagas | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 12 | Trujillanos | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 6 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estudiantes Merida | Deportivo Tachira |
|---|---|---|
| Carabobo | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Zamora | 1-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Caracas | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Metropolitanos FC | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Tachira (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estudiantes Merida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 31/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 06/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 04/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 9 | L |
Deportivo Tachira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 5-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/08 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estudiantes Merida vs Deportivo Tachira?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Tachira win (41%). Probabilities: Estudiantes Merida 29%, draw 30%, Deportivo Tachira 41%.
How many goals are expected in Estudiantes Merida vs Deportivo Tachira?
The model expects 2.22 goals (Estudiantes Merida 0.98 · Deportivo Tachira 1.24), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes Merida vs Deportivo Tachira?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.