Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 13/09, 21:30

Prediction: Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Portuguesa

Team pages: Deportivo Rayo Zuliano · Portuguesa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano1.12

Portuguesa1.59

1X2

26% 27% 47%

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Draw Portuguesa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLWL

Portuguesa 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWDDDD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 5–1–0 Portuguesa (6 last)

Portuguesa1-1Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
Portuguesa1-2Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano1-0Portuguesa
Portuguesa1-2Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano3-1Portuguesa
Portuguesa1-2Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 1469 · Portuguesa 1524

	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	Draw	Portuguesa
Our model	26%	27%	47%
Market	26%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portuguesa (rating 1469 vs 1524).
H2H favours Deportivo Rayo Zuliano: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	Portuguesa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.7	1.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.5	6.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.25

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
21:59 +3’	3.50	3.25	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 5–1–0 Portuguesa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
12/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
28/02/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	1-0 HT 1-0	Portuguesa
17/07/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano
03/02/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	3-1 HT 2-1	Portuguesa
21/08/23 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	1-2 HT 0-0	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Tachira	8	6	1	1	19	9	19
2	Metropolitanos FC	8	6	1	1	16	8	19
3	Deportivo La Guaira	8	5	1	2	19	9	16
4	Academia Puerto Cabello	8	4	3	1	12	5	15
5	Portuguesa	8	3	4	1	10	8	13
6	Estudiantes Merida	8	3	3	2	8	9	12
7	Carabobo	8	3	2	3	8	7	11
8	Caracas	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
9	UCV	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
10	Zamora	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
11	Monagas	8	2	1	5	9	12	7
12	Trujillanos	8	2	1	5	7	12	7
13	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	8	2	0	6	11	19	6
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	8	1	1	6	5	16	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	Portuguesa
Deportivo Tachira	1-3 L	0-1 L
Carabobo	4-3 W	1-0 W
UCV	1-4 L	3-2 W
Deportivo La Guaira	1-4 L	0-2 L
Academia Anzoategui FC	0-1 L	4-3 W
Zamora	1-2 L	1-1 D
Caracas	1-2 L	1-1 D
Metropolitanos FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Portuguesa (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Rayo Zuliano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
03/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	4-3	4	8	W
01/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-4	4	10	L
22/08	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-4	0	12	L
16/08	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
10/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-0	7	9	W
06/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
02/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
25/04	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
18/04	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	8	6	L

Portuguesa

LWWLWWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
03/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
31/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
09/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	4-3	7	9	W
05/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
31/07	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-2	3	9	W
24/05	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-2	6	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Portuguesa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Portuguesa win (47%). Probabilities: Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 26%, draw 27%, Portuguesa 47%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Portuguesa?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 1.12 · Portuguesa 1.59), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Rayo Zuliano vs Portuguesa?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.