Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 10/09, 22:00

Prediction: The Town vs Ventura County FC

Team pages: The Town · Ventura County FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

The Town1.84

Ventura County FC1.35

1X2

48% 24% 28%

The Town Draw Ventura County FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

The Town 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLDLWL

Ventura County FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWDWD

Head-to-head

The Town 4–1–1 Ventura County FC (6 last)

Ventura County FC3-0The Town
Ventura County FC1-3The Town
Ventura County FC0-4The Town
The Town4-1Ventura County FC
The Town1-1Ventura County FC
Ventura County FC0-4The Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · The Town 1460 · Ventura County FC 1543

	The Town	Draw	Ventura County FC
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ventura County FC (rating 1460 vs 1543).
H2H favours The Town: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	The Town	Ventura County FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	2.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:36 +12’	1.83	3.80	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · The Town 4–1–1 Ventura County FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Ventura County FC	3-0 HT 0-0	The Town
02/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Ventura County FC	1-3 HT 0-3	The Town
22/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Ventura County FC	0-4 HT 0-2	The Town
16/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	The Town	4-1 HT 3-0	Ventura County FC
30/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	The Town	1-1 HT 0-0	Ventura County FC
29/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Ventura County FC	0-4 HT 0-1	The Town

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Austin FC II	26	17	6	3	51	21	59
2	Portland Timbers II	26	14	8	4	35	27	54
3	Houston Dynamo II	25	13	5	7	48	28	48
4	Ventura County FC	25	12	7	6	51	33	47
5	St Louis City II	26	10	9	7	41	37	43
6	Los Angeles FC II	26	10	9	7	43	44	42
7	Tacoma Defiance	26	11	4	11	39	40	39
8	North Texas SC	25	8	9	8	39	36	38
9	Minnesota United FC II	25	10	5	10	35	36	37
10	The Town	25	9	6	10	44	33	36
11	Real Monarchs SLC	25	7	4	14	36	50	29
12	Vancouver Whitecaps II	26	6	5	15	38	55	27
13	Sporting Kansas City II	26	5	4	17	32	68	20
14	Colorado Rapids II	26	3	7	16	26	50	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	The Town	Ventura County FC
Los Angeles FC II	3-2 W	1-1 D
Houston Dynamo II	1-1 D	2-0 W
North Texas SC	0-1 L	6-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ventura County FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

The Town

LLLDDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
31/08	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
24/08	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
20/08	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/08	St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
09/08	Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
03/08	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
26/07	Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
19/07	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
13/07	Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Ventura County FC

DWLWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
29/08	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-2	8	5	W
24/08	Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
15/08	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
01/08	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	6-1	5	2	W
26/07	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	8	1	W
19/07	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
08/07	Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-3	13	5	L
28/06	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	3-1	8	5	W
14/06	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-1	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in The Town vs Ventura County FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a The Town win (48%). Probabilities: The Town 48%, draw 24%, Ventura County FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in The Town vs Ventura County FC?

The model expects 3.19 goals (The Town 1.84 · Ventura County FC 1.35), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in The Town vs Ventura County FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.