Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 14/09, 04:00
Prediction: Ventura County FC vs Tacoma Defiance
Team pages: Ventura County FC · Tacoma Defiance
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.59Total
Ventura County FC1.97
Tacoma Defiance1.62
1X2
Ventura County FC
Draw
Tacoma Defiance
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Ventura County FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Tacoma Defiance
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ventura County FC
3–3
Tacoma Defiance
(6 last)
- Tacoma Defiance1-0Ventura County FC
- Tacoma Defiance0-1Ventura County FC
- Tacoma Defiance4-6Ventura County FC
- Ventura County FC1-2Tacoma Defiance
- Ventura County FC3-2Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance4-0Ventura County FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ventura County FC 1583 · Tacoma Defiance 1517
| Ventura County FC | Draw | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ventura County FC (rating 1583 vs 1517).
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ventura County FC | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.1 | 2.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.2 | 1.2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ventura County FC 3–0–3 Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ventura County FC |
| 30/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ventura County FC |
| 02/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 4-6 HT 1-4 | Ventura County FC |
| 03/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 08/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 21/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Ventura County FC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 21 | 59 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 35 | 27 | 54 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 51 | 30 | 51 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54 | 34 | 50 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 41 | 37 | 43 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 43 | 44 | 42 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 39 | 40 | 39 |
| 8 | North Texas SC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 38 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC II | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
| 10 | The Town | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 36 | 36 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 50 | 29 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 55 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 68 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 26 | 50 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ventura County FC | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| The Town | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Los Angeles FC II | 1-1 D | 3-4 L |
| Colorado Rapids II | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Portland Timbers II | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| North Texas SC | 6-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 3-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Ventura County FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ventura County FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 29/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 08/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ventura County FC vs Tacoma Defiance?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ventura County FC win (45%). Probabilities: Ventura County FC 45%, draw 24%, Tacoma Defiance 31%.
How many goals are expected in Ventura County FC vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model expects 3.59 goals (Ventura County FC 1.97 · Tacoma Defiance 1.62), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ventura County FC vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.