Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 17/09, 03:00
Prediction: Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II
Team pages: Real Monarchs SLC · Minnesota United FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Real Monarchs SLC1.37
Minnesota United FC II1.99
1X2
Real Monarchs SLC
Draw
Minnesota United FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Monarchs SLC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Minnesota United FC II
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Monarchs SLC
3–1–2
Minnesota United FC II
(6 last)
- Real Monarchs SLC1-2Minnesota United FC II
- Real Monarchs SLC3-2Minnesota United FC II
- Minnesota United FC II2-1Real Monarchs SLC
- Minnesota United FC II2-2Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC2-1Minnesota United FC II
- Minnesota United FC II0-2Real Monarchs SLC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Monarchs SLC 1430 · Minnesota United FC II 1534
| Real Monarchs SLC | Draw | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Market | 26% | 21% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Minnesota United FC II (rating 1430 vs 1534).
- H2H favours Real Monarchs SLC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Monarchs SLC | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.6 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 3.3 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Monarchs SLC 3–1–2 Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 25/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 13/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 31/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 28/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 10/07/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 21 | 62 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 36 | 28 | 56 |
| 3 | Ventura County FC | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 57 | 34 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo II | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 30 | 52 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 45 | 45 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 7 | Minnesota United FC II | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 37 | 40 |
| 8 | North Texas SC | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 40 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 43 | 39 |
| 10 | The Town | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 36 | 39 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 36 | 54 | 29 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 60 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 33 | 73 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 51 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Monarchs SLC | Minnesota United FC II |
|---|---|---|
| The Town | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| North Texas SC | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Tacoma Defiance | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Colorado Rapids II | 1-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Houston Dynamo II | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Portland Timbers II | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 5 L | 3 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Minnesota United FC II (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Monarchs SLC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 20/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 09/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 29/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Minnesota United FC II win (52%). Probabilities: Real Monarchs SLC 26%, draw 22%, Minnesota United FC II 52%.
How many goals are expected in Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Real Monarchs SLC 1.37 · Minnesota United FC II 1.99), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.