Football · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · 25/09, 20:45
Prediction: Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)
Team pages: Derry City (W) · Larne FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.34Total
Derry City (W)3.17
Larne FC (W)1.17
1X2
Derry City (W)
Draw
Larne FC (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Derry City (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Larne FC (W)
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derry City (W)
5–1
Larne FC (W)
(6 last)
- Derry City (W)7-0Larne FC (W)
- Larne FC (W)1-6Derry City (W)
- Derry City (W)4-0Larne FC (W)
- Derry City (W)1-0Larne FC (W)
- Derry City (W)1-4Larne FC (W)
- Larne FC (W)0-4Derry City (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derry City (W) 1483 · Larne FC (W) 1349
| Derry City (W) | Draw | Larne FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derry City (W) (rating 1483 vs 1349).
- H2H favours Derry City (W): 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derry City (W) | Larne FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.4 | 0.5 / 4.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1 | 0.1 / 2.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 0/10/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.2 | 1 / 1.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City (W) 5–0–1 Larne FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Larne FC (W) |
| 29/05/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Larne FC (W) | 1-6 HT 1-2 | Derry City (W) |
| 22/04/26 Northern Ireland League Cup Women | Derry City (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Larne FC (W) |
| 01/10/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Larne FC (W) |
| 15/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Larne FC (W) |
| 23/05/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Larne FC (W) | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Derry City (W) |
Standings · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · Premiership, Women 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders Strikers (W) | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 53 | 19 |
| 2 | Derry City (W) | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 14 |
| 3 | Lisburn (W) | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 57 | 6 |
| 4 | Larne FC (W) | 15 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 66 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derry City (W) | Larne FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lisburn (W) | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Cliftonville (W) | 0-4 L | 0-8 L |
| Linfield (W) | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Lisburn Rangers (W) | 0-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Glentoran (W) | 0-1 L | 1-7 L |
| Crusaders Strikers (W) | 3-3 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 4 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Derry City (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derry City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 04/09 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/08 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 03/07 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/06 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
Larne FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-5 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 14/08 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 1-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-4 | 0-8 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | Derry City (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-4 | 0-7 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 03/07 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 19/06 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City (W) win (80%). Probabilities: Derry City (W) 80%, draw 12%, Larne FC (W) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)?
The model expects 4.34 goals (Derry City (W) 3.17 · Larne FC (W) 1.17), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.