Football · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · 04/10, 19:00
Prediction: Crusaders Strikers (W) vs Derry City (W)
Team pages: Crusaders Strikers (W) · Derry City (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.18Total
Crusaders Strikers (W)2.24
Derry City (W)1.94
1X2
Crusaders Strikers (W)
Draw
Derry City (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Crusaders Strikers (W)
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Derry City (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crusaders Strikers (W)
2–1–3
Derry City (W)
(6 last)
- Derry City (W)3-3Crusaders Strikers (W)
- Crusaders Strikers (W)3-1Derry City (W)
- Crusaders Strikers (W)0-3Derry City (W)
- Derry City (W)3-1Crusaders Strikers (W)
- Crusaders Strikers (W)4-2Derry City (W)
- Crusaders Strikers (W)0-1Derry City (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crusaders Strikers (W) 1463 · Derry City (W) 1480
| Crusaders Strikers (W) | Draw | Derry City (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 21% | 34% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Derry City (W): 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crusaders Strikers (W) | Derry City (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 4 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.8 | 1.8 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crusaders Strikers (W) 2–1–3 Derry City (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Crusaders Strikers (W) |
| 08/05/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Crusaders Strikers (W) | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Derry City (W) |
| 12/10/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Crusaders Strikers (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Derry City (W) |
| 05/09/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Crusaders Strikers (W) |
| 09/05/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Crusaders Strikers (W) | 4-2 HT 4-1 | Derry City (W) |
| 23/08/24 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Crusaders Strikers (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Derry City (W) |
Standings · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · Premiership, Women 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders Strikers (W) | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 55 | 22 |
| 2 | Derry City (W) | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 37 | 17 |
| 3 | Lisburn (W) | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 60 | 6 |
| 4 | Larne FC (W) | 16 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 71 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crusaders Strikers (W) | Derry City (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lisburn (W) | 3-2 W | 3-3 D |
| Larne FC (W) | 3-2 W | 5-1 W |
| Linfield (W) | 1-7 L | 1-2 L |
| Glentoran (W) | 1-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Cliftonville (W) | 0-9 L | 0-4 L |
| Lisburn Rangers (W) | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Derry City (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crusaders Strikers (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 18/09 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 1-7 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/08 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 07/08 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 31/07 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 0-9 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 03/07 | Derry City (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 26/06 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 1-9 | 3 | 1 | L |
Derry City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/09 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 04/09 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/08 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 03/07 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/06 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crusaders Strikers (W) vs Derry City (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crusaders Strikers (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Crusaders Strikers (W) 44%, draw 23%, Derry City (W) 33%.
How many goals are expected in Crusaders Strikers (W) vs Derry City (W)?
The model expects 4.18 goals (Crusaders Strikers (W) 2.24 · Derry City (W) 1.94), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crusaders Strikers (W) vs Derry City (W)?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.