Football · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · 18/09, 20:45

Prediction: Derry City (W) vs Lisburn (W)

Team pages: Derry City (W) · Lisburn (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.92Total

Derry City (W)2.87

Lisburn (W)1.06

1X2

74% 15% 11%

Derry City (W) Draw Lisburn (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Derry City (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLLWL

Lisburn (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLDLL

Head-to-head

Derry City (W) 5–1 Lisburn (W) (6 last)

Derry City (W)1-0Lisburn (W)
Lisburn (W)0-1Derry City (W)
Derry City (W)1-3Lisburn (W)
Lisburn (W)0-3Derry City (W)
Lisburn (W)0-2Derry City (W)
Derry City (W)1-0Lisburn (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derry City (W) 1472 · Lisburn (W) 1418

	Derry City (W)	Draw	Lisburn (W)
Our model	74%	16%	11%
Market	74%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derry City (W) (rating 1472 vs 1418).
H2H favours Derry City (W): 5-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derry City (W)	Lisburn (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.2	0.5 / 3.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.2 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	0.2 / 1.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.25

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:07 +8’	1.25	6.25	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City (W) 5–0–1 Lisburn (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Derry City (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Lisburn (W)
22/05/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Lisburn (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Derry City (W)
26/09/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Derry City (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Lisburn (W)
22/08/25 Northern Ireland Cup Women	Lisburn (W)	0-3 HT 0-0	Derry City (W)
25/07/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Lisburn (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Derry City (W)
06/06/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Derry City (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Lisburn (W)

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · Premiership, Women 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crusaders Strikers (W)	14	4	4	6	25	51	16
2	Derry City (W)	14	4	1	9	24	33	13
3	Lisburn (W)	14	1	2	11	6	54	5
4	Larne FC (W)	14	0	2	12	7	63	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derry City (W)	Lisburn (W)
Cliftonville (W)	0-4 L	0-7 L
Linfield (W)	1-2 L	1-6 L
Lisburn Rangers (W)	0-3 L	0-6 L
Glentoran (W)	0-1 L	0-4 L
Larne FC (W)	7-0 W	2-1 W
Crusaders Strikers (W)	3-3 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Derry City (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derry City (W)

WLLDWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-3	0-4	2	0	L
26/08	Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
14/08	Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
09/08	Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
31/07	Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/07	Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	4-0	7-0	6	0	W
03/07	Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
28/06	Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-2	1-3	1	1	L
19/06	Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-1	1-5	–	–	L
29/05	Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	2-1	6-1	–	–	W

Lisburn (W)

LLLWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-2	0-4	3	0	L
26/08	Derry City (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
14/08	Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
07/08	Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-6	1-6	0	1	L
31/07	Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-3	0-6	0	2	L
24/07	Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-3	0-7	2	0	L
03/07	Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
19/06	Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	1-3	1-8	3	0	L
29/05	Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
22/05	Derry City (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-1	0-1	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derry City (W) vs Lisburn (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City (W) win (74%). Probabilities: Derry City (W) 74%, draw 15%, Lisburn (W) 11%.

How many goals are expected in Derry City (W) vs Lisburn (W)?

The model expects 3.92 goals (Derry City (W) 2.87 · Lisburn (W) 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Derry City (W) vs Lisburn (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.