Football · Colombia Primera A · 30/10, 02:30

Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe

Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Independiente Santa Fe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.72

Independiente Santa Fe0.99

1X2

53% 26% 20%

Atletico Nacional Medellin Draw Independiente Santa Fe

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Nacional Medellin 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDWLWW

Independiente Santa Fe 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Nacional Medellin 3–2–1 Independiente Santa Fe (6 last)

Independiente Santa Fe1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin1-1Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin1-2Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe2-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Independiente Santa Fe0-3Atletico Nacional Medellin

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1577 vs 1522).
H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Independiente Santa Fe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.99

Under 2.751.81

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:06

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.54 → 1.55▲	Pinn 1.55
X	3.94 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.00
2	5.59 → 5.69▲	Pinn 5.69

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:43 +25’	1.54	3.94	5.59
03:43 +23’	1.55▲	4.00▲	5.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 3–2–1 Independiente Santa Fe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
26/07/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-1 HT 1-0	Independiente Santa Fe
13/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-2 HT 1-2	Atletico Nacional Medellin
08/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-2 HT 1-0	Independiente Santa Fe
13/02/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	2-2 HT 2-2	Atletico Nacional Medellin
09/12/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	0-3 HT 0-2	Atletico Nacional Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	15	10	2	3	30	13	32
2	America de Cali	15	9	4	2	29	11	31
3	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	24	10	30
4	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	14	6	7	1	22	13	25
6	Independiente Santa Fe	14	7	4	3	21	14	25
7	Independiente Medellin	15	7	2	6	22	21	23
8	Once Caldas	16	5	6	5	20	18	21
9	Cucuta Deportivo	15	6	3	6	18	22	21
10	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
11	Aguilas Doradas	15	4	7	4	19	20	19
12	Alianza	15	5	3	7	16	26	18
13	Internacional de Bogota	16	3	8	5	18	22	17
14	Llaneros	15	5	2	8	16	20	17
15	Junior	15	3	6	6	20	23	15
16	Boyaca Chico	15	4	3	8	12	25	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	2	8	5	11	19	14
18	Fortaleza CEIF	15	1	9	5	16	22	12
19	Deportivo Pasto	15	3	3	9	10	22	12
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	14	2	4	8	16	28	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin	2-1 W	1-0 W
Deportes Tolima	0-0 D	1-0 W
Junior	3-1 W	1-1 D
Millonarios	1-1 D	3-2 W
Llaneros	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Nacional Medellin

WWLDWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
23/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
17/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
09/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
01/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	7	10	W
25/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
17/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	9	3	W
13/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	8	3	W

Independiente Santa Fe

DWDWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
19/10	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
06/10	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
29/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	2	11	W
23/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
19/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-1	6	5	W
12/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	4	4	D
03/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	7	8	W
30/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (53%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 53%, draw 26%, Independiente Santa Fe 20%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.72 · Independiente Santa Fe 0.99), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.