Football · Colombia Primera B · 11/10, 03:15
Prediction: Bogota FC vs Patriotas FC
Team pages: Bogota FC · Patriotas FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Bogota FC1.17
Patriotas FC1.28
1X2
Bogota FC
Draw
Patriotas FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Bogota FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Patriotas FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bogota FC
1–1–4
Patriotas FC
(6 last)
- Patriotas FC0-1Bogota FC
- Patriotas FC1-1Bogota FC
- Bogota FC0-2Patriotas FC
- Bogota FC0-1Patriotas FC
- Patriotas FC2-0Bogota FC
- Patriotas FC1-0Bogota FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bogota FC 1476 · Patriotas FC 1478
| Bogota FC | Draw | Patriotas FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Patriotas FC: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bogota FC | Patriotas FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 6.4 | 3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 5.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bogota FC 1–1–4 Patriotas FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Colombia Primera B | Patriotas FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Bogota FC |
| 31/08/25 Colombia Primera B | Patriotas FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Bogota FC |
| 24/03/25 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Patriotas FC |
| 13/08/23 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Patriotas FC |
| 25/02/23 Colombia Primera B | Patriotas FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Bogota FC |
| 11/04/19 Colombia Cup | Patriotas FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bogota FC |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Tigres FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 18 |
| 5 | Patriotas FC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| 6 | Real Cartagena | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Deportes Quindio | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico Cali FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 9 | Real San Andres | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 15 |
| 10 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| 11 | Envigado FC | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Union Magdalena | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| 13 | Bogota FC | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 12 |
| 14 | Orsomarso | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| 15 | Itagui Leones | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 10 |
| 16 | Barranquilla FC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bogota FC | Patriotas FC |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Quindio | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Barranquilla FC | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Tigres FC | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Atletico Cali FC | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Boca Juniors De Cali | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Patriotas FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bogota FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 29/09 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/09 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/09 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 29/08 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 06/08 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 03/08 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Patriotas FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-3 | 1-4 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 14/09 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 11/09 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 25/08 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 20/08 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 31/07 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bogota FC vs Patriotas FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Patriotas FC win (38%). Probabilities: Bogota FC 33%, draw 28%, Patriotas FC 38%.
How many goals are expected in Bogota FC vs Patriotas FC?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Bogota FC 1.17 · Patriotas FC 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bogota FC vs Patriotas FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.