Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 09/09, 15:00

Prediction: Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Capiata

Team pages: Fernando de la Mora · Deportivo Capiata

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Fernando de la Mora1.6

Deportivo Capiata1.36

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Fernando de la Mora Draw Deportivo Capiata

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fernando de la Mora 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLWLDD

Deportivo Capiata 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLLDLW

Head-to-head

Fernando de la Mora 1–1–3 Deportivo Capiata (5 last)

Deportivo Capiata2-1Fernando de la Mora
Deportivo Capiata2-1Fernando de la Mora
Fernando de la Mora0-0Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata1-0Fernando de la Mora
Fernando de la Mora1-0Deportivo Capiata

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fernando de la Mora 1520 · Deportivo Capiata 1459

	Fernando de la Mora	Draw	Deportivo Capiata
Our model	42%	27%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fernando de la Mora (rating 1520 vs 1459).
H2H favours Deportivo Capiata: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fernando de la Mora	Deportivo Capiata
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	0.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:33 +2’	2.15	3.25	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fernando de la Mora 1–1–3 Deportivo Capiata

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Capiata	2-1 HT 1-1	Fernando de la Mora
14/09/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Capiata	2-1 HT 1-1	Fernando de la Mora
10/06/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Capiata
02/10/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Capiata	1-0 HT 1-0	Fernando de la Mora
22/06/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Capiata

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	22	13	5	4	32	20	44
2	General Caballero JLM	22	13	5	4	44	26	44
3	Deportivo Santaní	22	13	3	6	38	22	42
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	22	11	6	5	36	24	39
5	Sol de America	22	7	13	2	27	18	34
6	Resistencia FC	22	8	8	6	24	24	32
7	Club Atlético Tembetary	22	8	5	9	31	34	29
8	Independiente FBC	22	6	10	6	30	31	28
9	Carapegua	22	8	4	10	26	37	28
10	Deportivo Capiata	22	6	9	7	29	31	27
11	Paraguari AC	22	7	5	10	25	29	26
12	Fernando de la Mora	22	6	7	9	23	31	25
13	Guairena FC	22	6	6	10	20	26	24
14	Tacuary	22	3	10	9	24	36	19
15	Encarnacion FC	22	5	3	14	21	31	18
16	3 de Noviembre	22	3	7	12	26	36	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fernando de la Mora	Deportivo Capiata
Independiente FBC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Tacuary	1-1 D	0-0 D
Club Atlético Tembetary	1-2 L	1-3 L
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	2-1 W	1-1 D
Paraguari AC	2-2 D	1-2 L
3 de Noviembre	2-2 D	4-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fernando de la Mora (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fernando de la Mora

DDWDDLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
29/08	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
22/08	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
15/08	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/08	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
01/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
26/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
21/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
03/07	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-2	5	9	D

Deportivo Capiata

DLDDLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	4-3	2	3	W
28/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-2	7	8	L
21/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
16/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
08/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-3	1-4	6	4	L
04/08	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
29/07	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
20/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
14/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
07/07	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Capiata?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fernando de la Mora win (42%). Probabilities: Fernando de la Mora 42%, draw 27%, Deportivo Capiata 31%.

How many goals are expected in Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Capiata?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Fernando de la Mora 1.6 · Deportivo Capiata 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Capiata?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.