Football · China Division 2 · 07/10, 13:30

Prediction: Jiangxi Lushan vs Dalian Kewei

Team pages: Jiangxi Lushan · Dalian Kewei

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Jiangxi Lushan0.89

Dalian Kewei1.09

1X2

29% 33% 39%

Jiangxi Lushan Draw Dalian Kewei

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Jiangxi Lushan 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWLWLW

Dalian Kewei 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDDWLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jiangxi Lushan 1520 · Dalian Kewei 1525

	Jiangxi Lushan	Draw	Dalian Kewei
Our model	28%	34%	38%
Market	29%	32%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jiangxi Lushan	Dalian Kewei
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X2.80

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:41 +29’	3.10	2.80	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	24	14	4	6	39	19	46
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	24	13	4	7	30	18	43
3	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	24	13	3	8	32	19	42
4	Shandong Taishan Reserves	24	12	6	6	34	23	42
5	Shenzhen 2028	24	11	8	5	38	25	41
6	Dalian Kewei	24	10	11	3	23	14	41
7	Jiangxi Lushan	24	11	5	8	27	21	38
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	24	8	11	5	25	30	35

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jiangxi Lushan	Dalian Kewei
Shandong Taishan Reserves	2-1 W	2-2 D
Shenzhen 2028	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jiangxi Lushan

LDLDWWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
12/09	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
23/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
16/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
08/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
01/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
25/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
19/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	4	L

Dalian Kewei

LDWWDDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
12/09	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
15/08	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
09/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
02/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
25/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
18/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
12/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
08/07	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jiangxi Lushan vs Dalian Kewei?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dalian Kewei win (39%). Probabilities: Jiangxi Lushan 29%, draw 33%, Dalian Kewei 39%.

How many goals are expected in Jiangxi Lushan vs Dalian Kewei?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Jiangxi Lushan 0.89 · Dalian Kewei 1.09), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Jiangxi Lushan vs Dalian Kewei?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.