Football · China Division 2 · 17/10, 13:30

Prediction: Jiangxi Lushan vs Shanghai Port Reserves

Team pages: Jiangxi Lushan · Shanghai Port Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Jiangxi Lushan1.19

Shanghai Port Reserves1.1

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Jiangxi Lushan Draw Shanghai Port Reserves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Jiangxi Lushan 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWLWLL

Shanghai Port Reserves 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Jiangxi Lushan 2–1 Shanghai Port Reserves (3 last)

Shanghai Port Reserves1-0Jiangxi Lushan
Shanghai Port Reserves0-1Jiangxi Lushan
Jiangxi Lushan1-0Shanghai Port Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jiangxi Lushan 1489 · Shanghai Port Reserves 1509

	Jiangxi Lushan	Draw	Shanghai Port Reserves
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jiangxi Lushan: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jiangxi Lushan	Shanghai Port Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/90/0%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 3.02 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.32
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:16 +2’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:34 +7’	3.02	3.32	2.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jiangxi Lushan 2–0–1 Shanghai Port Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 China Division 2	Shanghai Port Reserves	1-0 HT 0-0	Jiangxi Lushan
14/06/25 China Division 2	Shanghai Port Reserves	0-1 HT 0-1	Jiangxi Lushan
05/04/25 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	1-0 HT 0-0	Shanghai Port Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	26	15	4	7	42	22	49
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	26	14	5	7	32	19	47
3	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	26	14	4	8	35	21	46
4	Shandong Taishan Reserves	26	13	7	6	37	24	46
5	Dalian Kewei	26	11	12	3	26	16	45
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	11	8	7	39	29	41
7	Jiangxi Lushan	26	11	5	10	28	24	38
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	26	8	13	5	27	32	37

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jiangxi Lushan	Shanghai Port Reserves
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	1-2 L	0-1 L
Shandong Taishan Reserves	2-1 W	1-3 L
Shenzhen 2028	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jiangxi Lushan

LDWWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
07/10	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
18/09	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
12/09	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
23/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
16/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
08/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
01/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
25/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L

Shanghai Port Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
06/10	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
19/09	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
12/09	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
22/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
15/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-3	1-3	4	3	L
05/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
01/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
26/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-1	2-3	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shanghai Port Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jiangxi Lushan win (37%). Probabilities: Jiangxi Lushan 37%, draw 30%, Shanghai Port Reserves 33%.

How many goals are expected in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shanghai Port Reserves?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Jiangxi Lushan 1.19 · Shanghai Port Reserves 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shanghai Port Reserves?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.