Football · China Division 2 · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Ganzhou Ruishi vs Beijing Institute

Team pages: Ganzhou Ruishi · Beijing Institute

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Ganzhou Ruishi1.37

Beijing Institute1.18

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Ganzhou Ruishi Draw Beijing Institute

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ganzhou Ruishi 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Beijing Institute 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ganzhou Ruishi 2–1–2 Beijing Institute (5 last)

Beijing Institute1-0Ganzhou Ruishi
Beijing Institute3-0Ganzhou Ruishi
Ganzhou Ruishi1-0Beijing Institute
Ganzhou Ruishi3-3Beijing Institute
Beijing Institute0-1Ganzhou Ruishi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ganzhou Ruishi 1426 · Beijing Institute 1497

	Ganzhou Ruishi	Draw	Beijing Institute
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Institute (rating 1426 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ganzhou Ruishi	Beijing Institute
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.3	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	1.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:14 +3’	2.25	3.10	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +26’	2.25	2.80	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ganzhou Ruishi 2–1–2 Beijing Institute

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	1-0 HT 0-0	Ganzhou Ruishi
18/10/25 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	3-0 HT 0-0	Ganzhou Ruishi
13/09/25 China Division 2	Ganzhou Ruishi	1-0 HT 0-0	Beijing Institute
19/10/24 China Division 2	Ganzhou Ruishi	3-3 HT 1-2	Beijing Institute
15/09/24 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	0-1 HT 0-1	Ganzhou Ruishi

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	9	10	7	29	24	37
2	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	7	13	6	31	25	34
3	Xiamen Feilu	26	8	9	9	32	31	33
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	26	7	9	10	22	38	30
5	Qingdao Red Lions	26	6	11	9	25	25	29
6	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	26	5	10	11	21	29	25
7	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	26	5	9	12	23	29	24
8	Beijing Institute	26	5	8	13	25	46	23

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ganzhou Ruishi	Beijing Institute
Nantong Haimen Codion	1-1 D	1-2 L
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	0-4 L	1-1 D
Xiamen Feilu	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ganzhou Ruishi (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ganzhou Ruishi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
07/10	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
19/09	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
23/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-2	0-4	2	5	L
16/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-2	1-3	6	0	L
08/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-2	0-6	4	2	L
01/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
25/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
18/07	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Beijing Institute

LLLWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
19/09	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	0-3	5	0	L
12/09	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	4-3	3	4	W
15/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
08/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
05/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
29/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	1-2	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ganzhou Ruishi vs Beijing Institute?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ganzhou Ruishi win (40%). Probabilities: Ganzhou Ruishi 40%, draw 29%, Beijing Institute 31%.

How many goals are expected in Ganzhou Ruishi vs Beijing Institute?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Ganzhou Ruishi 1.37 · Beijing Institute 1.18), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ganzhou Ruishi vs Beijing Institute?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.