Football · China Division 2 · 17/10, 10:00

Prediction: Dalian Kewei vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Team pages: Dalian Kewei · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Dalian Kewei1.12

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic0.88

1X2

40% 32% 28%

Dalian Kewei Draw Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Dalian Kewei 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dalian Kewei 1–0 Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic (1 last)

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic0-1Dalian Kewei

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dalian Kewei 1538 · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1512

	Dalian Kewei	Draw	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Our model	40%	33%	27%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dalian Kewei	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	3.3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.41 ★
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:11 +2’	2.20	2.90	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:42 +41’	2.41	2.71	3.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dalian Kewei 1–0–0 Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 China Division 2	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	0-1 HT 0-0	Dalian Kewei

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	26	15	4	7	42	22	49
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	26	14	5	7	32	19	47
3	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	26	14	4	8	35	21	46
4	Shandong Taishan Reserves	26	13	7	6	37	24	46
5	Dalian Kewei	26	11	12	3	26	16	45
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	11	8	7	39	29	41
7	Jiangxi Lushan	26	11	5	10	28	24	38
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	26	8	13	5	27	32	37

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dalian Kewei	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	2-2 D	3-4 L
Shenzhen 2028	0-0 D	1-0 W
Shandong Taishan Reserves	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dalian Kewei

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	2-2	5	8	D
07/10	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
19/09	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
12/09	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
15/08	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
09/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
02/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
25/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
18/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	12	3	W

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
06/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
19/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
12/09	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
16/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
11/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-2	3-4	4	7	L
05/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-0	2-0	10	7	W
01/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	3-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dalian Kewei vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dalian Kewei win (40%). Probabilities: Dalian Kewei 40%, draw 32%, Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 28%.

How many goals are expected in Dalian Kewei vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

The model expects 2 goals (Dalian Kewei 1.12 · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 0.88), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Dalian Kewei vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.