Football · China Division 2 · 25/10, 12:30

Prediction: Guangdong Mingtu vs Changchun Xidu

Team pages: Guangdong Mingtu · Changchun Xidu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Guangdong Mingtu1.22

Changchun Xidu0.75

1X2

47% 31% 22%

Guangdong Mingtu Draw Changchun Xidu

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangdong Mingtu 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWDDWD

Changchun Xidu 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Guangdong Mingtu 0–1–0 Changchun Xidu (1 last)

Changchun Xidu0-0Guangdong Mingtu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangdong Mingtu 1538 · Changchun Xidu 1524

	Guangdong Mingtu	Draw	Changchun Xidu
Our model	46%	32%	21%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangdong Mingtu	Changchun Xidu
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.4	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.4 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:13 +9’	1.91	2.90	4.00
04:20 +4’	1.91	3.00▲	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangdong Mingtu 0–1–0 Changchun Xidu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/09/26 China Division 2	Changchun Xidu	0-0 HT 0-0	Guangdong Mingtu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	27	10	9	8	33	27	39
2	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	27	8	12	7	28	25	36
3	Guangdong Mingtu	27	7	14	6	27	23	35
4	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	27	6	15	6	18	21	33
5	Changchun Xidu	27	6	13	8	21	31	31
6	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	7	9	11	27	33	30
7	Wenzhou FC	27	5	11	11	18	32	26
8	Shanghai Segenda	27	2	12	13	25	45	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangdong Mingtu	Changchun Xidu
Shanghai Segenda	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	1-1 D	0-1 L
Wenzhou FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Hubei Istar	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Xidu (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangdong Mingtu

WDDWLWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
11/10	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
06/10	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
18/09	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
16/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
09/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
01/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
27/07	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Changchun Xidu

DLLDWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/10	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
06/10	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/09	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
22/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
15/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
05/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangdong Mingtu vs Changchun Xidu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangdong Mingtu win (47%). Probabilities: Guangdong Mingtu 47%, draw 31%, Changchun Xidu 22%.

How many goals are expected in Guangdong Mingtu vs Changchun Xidu?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Guangdong Mingtu 1.22 · Changchun Xidu 0.75), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangdong Mingtu vs Changchun Xidu?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.