Football · China Division 2 · 25/10, 12:30

Prediction: Shenzhen 2028 vs Dalian Kewei

Team pages: Shenzhen 2028 · Dalian Kewei

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Shenzhen 20281.01

Dalian Kewei1.21

1X2

30% 31% 40%

Shenzhen 2028 Draw Dalian Kewei

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Shenzhen 2028 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWDLLL

Dalian Kewei 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWDWDW

Head-to-head

Shenzhen 2028 0–1–0 Dalian Kewei (1 last)

Dalian Kewei0-0Shenzhen 2028

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shenzhen 2028 1476 · Dalian Kewei 1548

	Shenzhen 2028	Draw	Dalian Kewei
Our model	29%	31%	39%
Market	30%	30%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dalian Kewei (rating 1476 vs 1548).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shenzhen 2028	Dalian Kewei
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.2	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:14 +8’	3.00	3.00	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen 2028 0–1–0 Dalian Kewei

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 China Division 2	Dalian Kewei	0-0 HT 0-0	Shenzhen 2028

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	27	15	5	7	42	22	50
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	27	15	5	7	33	19	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	12	12	3	28	17	48
4	Shandong Taishan Reserves	27	13	8	6	37	24	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	27	14	4	9	36	23	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	11	8	8	39	30	41
7	Jiangxi Lushan	27	11	6	10	28	24	39
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	27	8	14	5	27	32	38

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shenzhen 2028	Dalian Kewei
Shandong Taishan Reserves	0-2 L	2-2 D
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	0-1 L	2-1 W
Jiangxi Lushan	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dalian Kewei (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shenzhen 2028

WLWDLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
11/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
06/10	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
19/09	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
13/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
23/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
16/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	6-0	2	2	W
01/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/07	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	2	W

Dalian Kewei

WDDWLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
12/10	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	2-2	5	8	D
07/10	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
19/09	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
12/09	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
15/08	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
09/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
02/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
25/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shenzhen 2028 vs Dalian Kewei?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dalian Kewei win (40%). Probabilities: Shenzhen 2028 30%, draw 31%, Dalian Kewei 40%.

How many goals are expected in Shenzhen 2028 vs Dalian Kewei?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Shenzhen 2028 1.01 · Dalian Kewei 1.21), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shenzhen 2028 vs Dalian Kewei?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.