Football · China Division 2 · 24/10, 09:30

Prediction: Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Jiangxi Lushan

Team pages: Shandong Taishan Reserves · Jiangxi Lushan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Shandong Taishan Reserves1.44

Jiangxi Lushan0.65

1X2

56% 27% 17%

Shandong Taishan Reserves Draw Jiangxi Lushan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Shandong Taishan Reserves 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLDDLWDD

Jiangxi Lushan 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Shandong Taishan Reserves 2–1 Jiangxi Lushan (3 last)

Jiangxi Lushan2-1Shandong Taishan Reserves
Jiangxi Lushan1-3Shandong Taishan Reserves
Shandong Taishan Reserves2-0Jiangxi Lushan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1511 · Jiangxi Lushan 1500

	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Draw	Jiangxi Lushan
Our model	55%	29%	16%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shandong Taishan Reserves: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Jiangxi Lushan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	0.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/90/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:02 +7’	1.57	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shandong Taishan Reserves 2–0–1 Jiangxi Lushan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/09/26 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	2-1 HT 2-0	Shandong Taishan Reserves
02/08/25 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	1-3 HT 0-0	Shandong Taishan Reserves
26/05/25 China Division 2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	2-0 HT 2-0	Jiangxi Lushan

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	27	15	5	7	42	22	50
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	27	15	5	7	33	19	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	12	12	3	28	17	48
4	Shandong Taishan Reserves	27	13	8	6	37	24	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	27	14	4	9	36	23	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	11	8	8	39	30	41
7	Jiangxi Lushan	27	11	6	10	28	24	39
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	27	8	14	5	27	32	38

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Jiangxi Lushan
Shanghai Port Reserves	3-1 W	0-0 D
Dalian Kewei	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shandong Taishan Reserves (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shandong Taishan Reserves

DDWLDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
11/10	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/10	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
18/09	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-2	1-2	5	0	L
13/09	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
08/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	3-0	3-1	8	3	W
02/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-1	2-2	9	1	D
25/07	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D

Jiangxi Lushan

DWWLWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
12/10	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
07/10	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
18/09	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
12/09	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
23/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
16/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
08/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
01/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Jiangxi Lushan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shandong Taishan Reserves win (56%). Probabilities: Shandong Taishan Reserves 56%, draw 27%, Jiangxi Lushan 17%.

How many goals are expected in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Jiangxi Lushan?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Shandong Taishan Reserves 1.44 · Jiangxi Lushan 0.65), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Jiangxi Lushan?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.