Football · China Division 2 · 01/11, 07:30

Prediction: Shanghai Port Reserves vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Team pages: Shanghai Port Reserves · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Shanghai Port Reserves1.03

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic1.34

1X2

28% 28% 43%

Shanghai Port Reserves Draw Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Shanghai Port Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Shanghai Port Reserves 0–1 Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic (1 last)

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic2-1Shanghai Port Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shanghai Port Reserves 1492 · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1505

	Shanghai Port Reserves	Draw	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Our model	28%	30%	42%
Market	29%	27%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shanghai Port Reserves	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	3.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.30

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.36 ★
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.15 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.08

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +11’	3.00	3.20	2.15
08:43 +2’	2.75▼	3.20	2.30▲
10:22 +7’	3.00▲	3.20	2.15▼
13:14 +15’	3.10▲	3.30▲	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:35 +11’	2.87	2.72	2.61
09:59 +30’	3.40▲	2.97▲	2.14▼
13:09 +20’	3.36▼	3.12▲	2.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanghai Port Reserves 0–0–1 Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/10/26 China Division 2	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	2-1 HT 1-1	Shanghai Port Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	28	15	5	8	44	25	50
2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	28	14	8	6	39	25	50
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	28	15	5	8	33	20	50
4	Dalian Kewei	28	12	13	3	29	18	49
5	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	28	15	4	9	37	23	49
6	Shenzhen 2028	28	11	9	8	40	31	42
7	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	28	9	14	5	30	34	41
8	Jiangxi Lushan	28	11	6	11	29	26	39

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shanghai Port Reserves	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	2-3 L	3-4 L
Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-3 L	1-1 D
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shanghai Port Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	1-0	2-3	4	2	L
17/10	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/10	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
06/10	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
19/09	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
12/09	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
22/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
15/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-3	1-3	4	3	L
05/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
17/10	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
11/10	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
06/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
19/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
12/09	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
16/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
11/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-2	3-4	4	7	L
05/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-0	2-0	10	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic win (43%). Probabilities: Shanghai Port Reserves 28%, draw 28%, Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 43%.

How many goals are expected in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Shanghai Port Reserves 1.03 · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1.34), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.