Football · China Division 2 · 08/11, 07:30

Prediction: Jiangxi Lushan vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Team pages: Jiangxi Lushan · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.91Total

Jiangxi Lushan0.66

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai1.25

1X2

20% 29% 51%

Jiangxi Lushan Draw Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Jiangxi Lushan 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLLDLL

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDWWLD

Head-to-head

Jiangxi Lushan 1–1–1 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (3 last)

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai2-1Jiangxi Lushan
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai0-3Jiangxi Lushan
Jiangxi Lushan1-1Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jiangxi Lushan 1467 · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1511

	Jiangxi Lushan	Draw	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Our model	18%	32%	50%
Market	21%	27%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 1.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (rating 1467 vs 1511).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jiangxi Lushan	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.30

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:35 +7’	4.33	3.30	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jiangxi Lushan 1–1–1 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/10/26 China Division 2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	2-1 HT 1-1	Jiangxi Lushan
31/05/25 China Division 2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-3 HT 0-1	Jiangxi Lushan
22/03/25 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	1-1 HT 0-1	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	29	15	8	6	42	27	53
2	Dalian Kewei	29	13	13	3	31	19	52
3	Shanghai Port Reserves	29	15	6	8	44	25	51
4	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	29	15	6	8	34	21	51
5	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	29	15	5	9	37	23	50
6	Shenzhen 2028	29	11	9	9	42	34	42
7	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	29	9	15	5	31	35	42
8	Jiangxi Lushan	29	11	6	12	30	28	39

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jiangxi Lushan

WLWLWLLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
26/10	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
17/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
12/10	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
07/10	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
18/09	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
12/09	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
23/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
16/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
08/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	5	W

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

WLDLWDWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
24/10	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
17/10	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
12/10	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
06/10	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/09	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
13/09	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
22/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
09/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shanxi Chongde Ronghai win (51%). Probabilities: Jiangxi Lushan 20%, draw 29%, Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 51%.

How many goals are expected in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

The model expects 1.91 goals (Jiangxi Lushan 0.66 · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1.25), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.