Football · China Division 2 · 08/11, 07:30

Prediction: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Shandong Taishan Reserves

Team pages: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic · Shandong Taishan Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic1.26

Shandong Taishan Reserves0.89

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic Draw Shandong Taishan Reserves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWDLWD

Shandong Taishan Reserves 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWDDWW

Head-to-head

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 2–1–0 Shandong Taishan Reserves (3 last)

Shandong Taishan Reserves1-1Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic1-0Shandong Taishan Reserves
Shandong Taishan Reserves0-2Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1487 · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1530

	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Draw	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Our model	43%	32%	25%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shandong Taishan Reserves (rating 1487 vs 1530).
H2H favours Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.5	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +3’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 2–1–0 Shandong Taishan Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/26 China Division 2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-1 HT 1-1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
19/10/25 China Division 2	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	1-0 HT 0-0	Shandong Taishan Reserves
14/09/25 China Division 2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	0-2 HT 0-0	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	29	15	8	6	42	27	53
2	Dalian Kewei	29	13	13	3	31	19	52
3	Shanghai Port Reserves	29	15	6	8	44	25	51
4	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	29	15	6	8	34	21	51
5	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	29	15	5	9	37	23	50
6	Shenzhen 2028	29	11	9	9	42	34	42
7	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	29	9	15	5	31	35	42
8	Jiangxi Lushan	29	11	6	12	30	28	39

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Shanghai Port Reserves	0-0 D	3-1 W
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	3-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shandong Taishan Reserves (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

LDDLLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
24/10	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
17/10	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
11/10	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
06/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
19/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
12/09	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
16/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
11/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-2	3-4	4	7	L

Shandong Taishan Reserves

WLDDLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-2	3-2	6	2	W
26/10	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
17/10	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
11/10	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/10	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
18/09	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-2	1-2	5	0	L
13/09	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
08/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	3-0	3-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic win (44%). Probabilities: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 44%, draw 30%, Shandong Taishan Reserves 26%.

How many goals are expected in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1.26 · Shandong Taishan Reserves 0.89), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.