Football · China Division 2 · 01/11, 07:30

Prediction: Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Shenzhen 2028

Team pages: Shandong Taishan Reserves · Shenzhen 2028

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Shandong Taishan Reserves1.48

Shenzhen 20280.75

1X2

54% 28% 18%

Shandong Taishan Reserves Draw Shenzhen 2028

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Shandong Taishan Reserves 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDDLWDDW

Shenzhen 2028 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDLLLD

Head-to-head

Shandong Taishan Reserves 3–0 Shenzhen 2028 (3 last)

Shenzhen 20280-2Shandong Taishan Reserves
Shandong Taishan Reserves5-0Shenzhen 2028
Shenzhen 20280-1Shandong Taishan Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1520 · Shenzhen 2028 1465

	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Draw	Shenzhen 2028
Our model	53%	29%	18%
Market	54%	27%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shandong Taishan Reserves (rating 1520 vs 1465).
H2H favours Shandong Taishan Reserves: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Shenzhen 2028
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	1.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.30

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.65▼	Pinn 1.66
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.37
2	3.80 → 4.75▲	Pinn 4.98 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:08 +13’	1.83	3.25	3.80
08:40 +5’	1.65▼	3.30▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:40 +6’	1.93	3.03	3.98
09:59 +30’	1.87▼	3.12▲	4.10▲
13:16 +12’	1.66▼	3.37▲	4.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shandong Taishan Reserves 3–0–0 Shenzhen 2028

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/10/26 China Division 2	Shenzhen 2028	0-2 HT 0-2	Shandong Taishan Reserves
26/10/25 China Division 2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	5-0 HT 2-0	Shenzhen 2028
21/09/25 China Division 2	Shenzhen 2028	0-1 HT 0-1	Shandong Taishan Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	28	15	5	8	44	25	50
2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	28	14	8	6	39	25	50
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	28	15	5	8	33	20	50
4	Dalian Kewei	28	12	13	3	29	18	49
5	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	28	15	4	9	37	23	49
6	Shenzhen 2028	28	11	9	8	40	31	42
7	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	28	9	14	5	30	34	41
8	Jiangxi Lushan	28	11	6	11	29	26	39

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Shenzhen 2028
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	1-1 D	0-1 L
Shanghai Port Reserves	3-1 W	1-2 L
Dalian Kewei	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Shandong Taishan Reserves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shandong Taishan Reserves

DWLDDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
17/10	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
11/10	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/10	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
18/09	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-2	1-2	5	0	L
13/09	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
08/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	3-0	3-1	8	3	W
02/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-1	2-2	9	1	D

Shenzhen 2028

LWDLWDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
17/10	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
11/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
06/10	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
19/09	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
13/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
23/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
16/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	6-0	2	2	W
01/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Shenzhen 2028?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shandong Taishan Reserves win (54%). Probabilities: Shandong Taishan Reserves 54%, draw 28%, Shenzhen 2028 18%.

How many goals are expected in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Shenzhen 2028?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Shandong Taishan Reserves 1.48 · Shenzhen 2028 0.75), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Shenzhen 2028?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.