Football · China Division 2 · 17/10, 09:00

Prediction: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Guangzhou Dandelion

Team pages: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic · Guangzhou Dandelion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1.32

Guangzhou Dandelion0.93

1X2

44% 30% 25%

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic Draw Guangzhou Dandelion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDWDWWLL

Guangzhou Dandelion 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDLLDW

Head-to-head

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 2–1–0 Guangzhou Dandelion (3 last)

Guangzhou Dandelion1-2Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1-0Guangzhou Dandelion
Guangzhou Dandelion0-0Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1512 · Guangzhou Dandelion 1470

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Draw	Guangzhou Dandelion
Our model	44%	31%	25%
Market	45%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (rating 1512 vs 1470).
H2H favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Guangzhou Dandelion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.20 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:02 +11’	2.00	3.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:29 +53’	2.20	2.72	3.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 2–1–0 Guangzhou Dandelion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 China Division 2	Guangzhou Dandelion	1-2 HT 0-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
18/10/25 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	1-0 HT 1-0	Guangzhou Dandelion
14/09/25 China Division 2	Guangzhou Dandelion	0-0 HT 0-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	26	10	9	7	33	26	39
2	Guangdong Mingtu	26	7	13	6	26	22	34
3	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	26	7	12	7	24	25	33
4	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	26	6	14	6	18	21	32
5	Guangzhou Dandelion	26	7	8	11	27	33	29
6	Changchun Xidu	26	5	13	8	20	31	28
7	Wenzhou FC	26	5	11	10	18	28	26
8	Shanghai Segenda	26	2	11	13	24	44	17

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

DDWDWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
06/10	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	0-2	10	6	L
18/09	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
13/09	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
22/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
09/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
05/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
01/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	2-2	5	3	D

Guangzhou Dandelion

LDLDWDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
06/10	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
13/09	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
23/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	3-1	4	0	W
08/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
02/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-4	5	3	L
25/07	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
18/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-1	1-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Guangzhou Dandelion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic win (44%). Probabilities: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 44%, draw 30%, Guangzhou Dandelion 25%.

How many goals are expected in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Guangzhou Dandelion?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1.32 · Guangzhou Dandelion 0.93), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Guangzhou Dandelion?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.