Football · China Division 2 · 18/10, 09:00

Prediction: Changchun Xidu vs Hubei Istar

Team pages: Changchun Xidu · Hubei Istar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Changchun Xidu1.24

Hubei Istar0.87

1X2

44% 31% 25%

Changchun Xidu Draw Hubei Istar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Xidu 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLLDWWDDW

Hubei Istar 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWLDWD

Head-to-head

Changchun Xidu 3–0 Hubei Istar (3 last)

Hubei Istar1-2Changchun Xidu
Changchun Xidu1-0Hubei Istar
Hubei Istar1-3Changchun Xidu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Xidu 1514 · Hubei Istar 1481

	Changchun Xidu	Draw	Hubei Istar
Our model	44%	32%	25%
Market	45%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Changchun Xidu: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Xidu	Hubei Istar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.6	1 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:54 +4’	2.00	3.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Xidu 3–0–0 Hubei Istar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	1-2 HT 0-1	Changchun Xidu
24/06/25 China Division 2	Changchun Xidu	1-0 HT 1-0	Hubei Istar
23/03/25 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	1-3 HT 0-1	Changchun Xidu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	26	10	9	7	33	26	39
2	Guangdong Mingtu	26	7	13	6	26	22	34
3	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	26	7	12	7	24	25	33
4	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	26	6	14	6	18	21	32
5	Guangzhou Dandelion	26	7	8	11	27	33	29
6	Changchun Xidu	26	5	13	8	20	31	28
7	Wenzhou FC	26	5	11	10	18	28	26
8	Shanghai Segenda	26	2	11	13	24	44	17

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Xidu	Hubei Istar
Guangdong Mingtu	0-0 D	0-0 D
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	0-1 L	1-1 D
Shanghai Segenda	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hubei Istar (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changchun Xidu

DDLLDWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
06/10	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/09	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
22/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
15/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
05/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
25/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D

Hubei Istar

DDLLLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
06/10	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	2-0	2-0	0	6	W
19/09	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
12/09	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
23/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
16/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
08/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-1	2-3	3	4	L
05/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
01/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
26/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Xidu vs Hubei Istar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changchun Xidu win (44%). Probabilities: Changchun Xidu 44%, draw 31%, Hubei Istar 25%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Xidu vs Hubei Istar?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Changchun Xidu 1.24 · Hubei Istar 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Xidu vs Hubei Istar?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.